Charlie Kirk and Tyler Bowyer Break Down How Turning Point Action Delivered Arizona by 200,000 Votes

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2,422 videos 1,389,747,653 views US Joined Aug 30, 2018

Charlie Kirk is the Founder and President of Turning Point USA, the largest and fastest growing conservative youth activist organization in the country with over 250,000 student members, over 150 full-time staff, and a presence on over 2,000 high school and college campuses nationwide. Charlie is also the Chairman of Students for Trump, which aims to activate one million new college voters on campuses in battleground states in the lead up to the 2020 presidential election. His social media reaches over 100 million people per month and according to Axios, he is one of the "top 10 most engaged" Twitter handles in the world. He is also the host of “The Charlie Kirk Show,” which regularly ranks among the top news shows on Apple podcast charts.

Charlie Kirk and Tyler Bowyer Break Down How Turning Point Action Delivered Arizona by 200,000 Votes

Charlie Kirk sits down with Turning Point Action COO Tyler Bowyer to dissect the behind-the-scenes operation that made Arizona Trump's best-performing swing state in 2024. Bowyer reveals how Turning Point Action replicated Michigan's Democrat ground game in just 18 months, chasing over 200,000 low-propensity voters, more than Trump's margin of victory. The conversation expands to Wisconsin's tight race, the Democrats' post-election civil war, and the brewing battle over Trump's cabinet confirmations. Kirk and Bowyer announce a new grassroots campaign to pressure senators: Give Trump His Cabinet.

November 20, 2024

Arizona: Trump's Best Swing State Performance

Charlie Kirk opens the conversation by highlighting Arizona's standout performance in the 2024 election, where Trump won by nearly 5.6 to 5.7 points—outperforming even his 2016 victory. Tyler Bowyer, COO of Turning Point Action, credits the success to an entirely rebuilt ground operation that took just 18 months to construct, replicating what Democrats spent 18 years building in Michigan.

Bowyer explains the strategic imperative behind the Arizona focus: "Arizona is kind of like the Democrats' Michigan. If you lose Arizona, your statistical chance of winning the presidency goes way down—to the tune of over 70% based on the current map." Facing the aftermath of 2020 and watching the Republican establishment fail to deliver, Kirk and Bowyer knew they had to take matters into their own hands.

The Super Chase Model: 200,000 Low-Propensity Voters

The core of Turning Point Action's strategy was what Bowyer calls the "super chase model." Out of Arizona's approximately 3.5 million voters, they identified a universe of nearly 400,000 disengaged, low-propensity voters—representing over 10% of the electorate. The goal was to chase at least half of them, knowing that a 5% swing could determine the outcome in any competitive swing state.

Turning Point Action exceeded expectations, chasing well over 200,000 voters—more than Trump's 186,000-vote margin of victory in Arizona. Bowyer emphasizes this wasn't about door hangers or text messages: "We were building relationships—having five, six, seven, eight, nine meaningful relational contacts with these people. Bringing them cookies, offering to help, bringing their groceries, seeing them at the park, waving at them at the mailbox, being from their neighborhood. That is what moves votes."

Without this work, Kirk and Bowyer assert, Arizona would have been a nailbiter or possibly a Harris victory.

Wisconsin: The Rust Belt Surprise

Turning Point Action's ballot-chasing operation wasn't limited to Arizona. In Wisconsin, they partnered with Elon Musk's America PAC and established a full-time office in Waukesha County, the most critical part of the Milwaukee "WOW" counties (Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee). These three red counties serve as the offset to deep-blue Milwaukee.

Bowyer reports they chased over 60,000 low-propensity voters in Wisconsin, with final numbers still pending voter data release. Trump won Wisconsin by a razor-thin margin, and Bowyer believes Turning Point Action's ground game made the difference.

Interestingly, both Arizona and Wisconsin had nearly identical turnout numbers, differing by only about 30,000 votes. Contrary to pre-election predictions that the Sun Belt would go red while the Rust Belt went blue, both regions trended redder. Bowyer notes this shift from light red to deep red counties creates "habitual Republican voting states for president," a phenomenon that's hard for Democrats to reverse.

Democrats in Disarray: The Post-Election Civil War

Blake, another participant in the conversation, provides an update on the Democratic Party's internal chaos. He delivers what he calls "good news and great news": moderate Democrats are urging the party to course-correct after going "too weird," while the far left is doubling down, insisting they weren't weird enough.

Bowyer points to examples like Arizona Republic opinion columnist EJ Montini, who criticized Governor Katie Hobbs for trying to "masquerade as Kyrsten Sinema," arguing it's a bad idea. The progressive wing is telling everyone not to moderate like Joe Manchin or Sinema, even though their obstruction contributed to both senators' departures.

The result? A fractured Democratic Party fighting itself while Republicans consolidate power with a conservative House Freedom Caucus that outnumbers the margin between parties, a Republican Senate, and Trump in the White House.

The Cabinet Confirmation Battle

The conversation shifts to Trump's cabinet picks and the potential resistance from Republican senators. Blake offers strategic advice: Trump's aggressive posture of announcing his picks and refusing to reconsider (as he did with Matt Gaetz) forces senators into an uncomfortable position. "Trump has been saying these are my picks, I'm not going to reconsider them. We're going to make you vote on it up or down," Blake explains.

Many Republican senators, Blake argues, are "psychologically a bit weak" and easily browbeaten by the left. But with Democrats in disarray, there's no organized resistance to apply pressure. This creates an opening for the right to pressure senators into confirming Trump's choices.

Bowyer recalls the cautionary tale of Jeff Flake, the Arizona senator who voted for all of Barack Obama's cabinet appointments—even shooting hoops with Obama—but then opposed Trump's nominees. Flake chose not to run for re-election, his career essentially ruined, and now works for Democrats. "That's what's going to happen to all these other senators—they're going to get Jeff Flaked," Bowyer warns.

Give Trump His Cabinet: A New Grassroots Campaign

Kirk and Bowyer announce a major new initiative from Turning Point Action: a grassroots campaign called "Give Trump His Cabinet." The goal is to activate the America First base to pressure red-state senators into confirming Trump's nominees.

Bowyer explains the strategy: "The Grassroots has been the engine for the Trump era since 2016—the culmination of the Tea Party Movement, Constitutional conservatives coming together as America First Patriots. There's nothing that's going to be able to get in our way."

He points out the hypocrisy that will mobilize activists: if senators voted for Merrick Garland but won't vote for Matt Gaetz, it will "send the Grassroots on fire." The mandate isn't just for Trump to sit behind the Resolute Desk—it's for him to govern with his chosen team.

Bowyer warns senators from deep-red states where Trump won by 20-30 points: "Senators are going to learn a harsh lesson. They're going to come face to face with that mandate themselves if they don't get themselves out of the way."

The Status of the Grassroots

Kirk asks about the current state of the grassroots movement, and Bowyer's assessment is unequivocal: "The Grassroots is on fire." He recalls how people underestimated Trump during the presidential primary, thinking it would be competitive. "People didn't really understand what they were up against—the people are so far behind our 47th president, our immediately past best president that we've had."

This same energy, Bowyer predicts, will be directed at any senator who obstructs Trump's agenda. Some of the least conservative senators come from the reddest states, and they're also among the least popular. "You can look at surveys and polls—nobody likes these people. You cannot pick them up off the street. Nobody knows who they are unless they're standing on C-SPAN."

These senators, Bowyer argues, survive only because of NRSC protection and name recognition from the "R" next to their names. But that won't save them if they cross the grassroots on cabinet confirmations.

Looking Ahead: Primaries and the Midterms

Kirk and Bowyer discuss the possibility of primary challenges against Republican senators who don't represent their voters. Bowyer believes 2025 will be "a really fun year" because the senators will largely "do most of the work for us" by exposing themselves through their votes.

Rather than needing extensive convincing, an energized base focused on cabinet confirmations will naturally build momentum heading into the midterms. Bowyer expects most senators to fold under pressure, but a few will resist—and those few will face the wrath of America First voters in deep-red territory.

The conversation concludes with Kirk promoting AmericaFest, Turning Point USA's annual conference at the Phoenix Convention Center, featuring Tucker Carlson and other major speakers, and encouraging listeners to visit tpaction.com for more information on the Give Trump His Cabinet campaign.

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