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RangeDayBro Investigates the Charlie Kirk Assassination: Text Messages, Missing Evidence, and Unanswered Questions

RangeDayBro Investigates the Charlie Kirk Assassination: Text Messages, Missing Evidence, and Unanswered Questions

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Jesús Enrique Rosas Examines the Murder Weapon Inconsistencies in the Charlie Kirk Assassination Investigation

Categories: Analysis
September 18, 2025

Jesús Enrique Rosas analyzes troubling inconsistencies surrounding the rifle used in Charlie Kirk's assassination. From the improperly mounted scope that should have caused a black eye to the mysterious cardboard box absent from some photos, multiple questions remain unanswered. The Mauser 98 rifle had an eye relief issue that physics would dictate should have injured the shooter upon firing, yet Tyler Robinson's mugshot showed no such injury. Rosas examines competing narratives about whether Robinson acted alone, had accomplices, or if evidence was planted, while exploring how the shooter accessed the rooftop and escaped so quickly.

The Rifle That Doesn't Add Up

In examining the assassination of Charlie Kirk, numerous topics have been explored from the angle of the shoulder injury to whether the shooter was part of a trans terrorist cell online, and what text messages were being shared. However, one piece of the puzzle that deserves closer examination is the rifle itself. There are significant inconsistencies in the reports between what people observe in the photographs, what the FBI states, and what some experts say is actually possible to do with a rifle under those circumstances.

The Optics and Eye Relief Problem

Thanks to analysis from Phil Hallway, the optic on this rifle was a sight that would make something 200 yards away appear to be right in front of you, well within the capabilities of people without specialized training. This appears to be a four to eight times magnification sight. However, people are asking very good questions about elements in the scene, including a cardboard box that appears in some images but not others. Who provided this cardboard box? Was it behind the bushes on purpose? This seems strange because the rifle should have been wrapped in a black cloth that Tyler Robinson used to be able to run with it.

Thanks to Alex Malone and others who have sent detailed analysis, there is a significant amount of information to review about the rifle itself. One thing is certain: the eye relief, which is the distance between the sights and your eye when you take a shot, was too short on the murder weapon. This means that when you fire and experience the recoil, because the rifle goes backwards due to physics, if there's too little eye relief, the sight will literally hit your eye. Robinson should have had a black eye when he was caught. He should have had a black eye when his mugshot was taken, but he didn't.

FBI Evidence and Measurement Discrepancies

There are apparent discrepancies in the photos taken by the FBI of the actual murder weapon compared to similar rifles in real life. The FBI states the rifle was a Sporterized Mauser M98 chambered in 30-06. A very common barrel length for this rifle is 24 inches, which provides a reference point for conducting measurements to ensure that the correct scale is obtained for image overlay analysis. An image overlay with the wrong scale can skew later assessment, so understanding if the optics were correctly positioned is important and could explain the absence of that black eye on Tyler Robinson's mugshot.

To properly consider the focal length of the FBI's image and the reference image from social media, the focal length of the camera in which they took the picture is not known. This is the most important factor when attempting to make even approximate measurements using a photo. This is not a forensic analysis by any means, but is merely intended to help identify discrepancies in the sequence of events so that these details can be investigated by the proper authorities.

Physical Evidence That Doesn't Match

Robinson had this rifle on his right leg, but it's odd that even if he was limping while walking to UVU right before taking the shot, footage shows him going up to the rooftop and bending his right leg with no problem. This is quite strange and doesn't fit what has been presented.

Competing Narratives

There are several narratives regarding the rifle:

Narrative One: The Official Story
Robinson conducted the shooting and acted alone. Some are claiming that maybe he dropped the rifle at some point, and when he dropped it, the sights were slightly displaced, which is why the sight appears inconsistent with proper positioning that would prevent a black eye from the shot. That is just a theory about something that could have happened, but there's no way to confirm it.

Narrative Two: Plausible Alternative
Robinson conducted the shooting but had help from others. This appears to have approximately 80% odds in the analysis. Robinson planned the attack with the help of others. Robinson may have been the shooter, but it wasn't his rifle.

Narrative Three: Fringe Positions
This includes several sub-theories:

  • Robinson was not the shooter (approximately 10% odds)
  • The rifle was staged (acknowledged as having a non-zero chance)
  • His clothes changed and the backpack is evidence they don't have the right man
  • The security camera footage doesn't look like him (Robinson and his boyfriend look very much alike)
  • He communicated with others who were more involved (100% likelihood in this analysis)

Going to Extreme Lengths to Make the FBI Story Work

It is theoretically possible that:

  1. The scope was properly mounted but shifted into an improbable position during the escape
  2. The scope was never properly positioned and the shooter took the shot with a very suboptimal sight picture (unlikely due to the suspect having some knowledge of firearms, as Tyler Robinson had knowledge of firearms from a very young age)
  3. The rifle did not belong to the shooter and was on loan from someone else who had mounted the scope in this manner
  4. This rifle was planted to make observers think this was the weapon used

When footage shows Robinson running with the rifle wrapped in dark cloth, there's no way to confirm what was actually inside. It's important to be clear on what evidence exists and what can be inferred from what actually happened.

Rooftop Access Was Surprisingly Easy

Many have wondered how someone could just have access to a rooftop like that. Usually universities, companies, or any other structure have limited access or locked access. Analysis shows how easy it actually was. The first picture shows the sniper's perch and location on the roof, a plain rooftop. The second picture reveals the roof level is even with an elevated walkway that is blocked only by a railing. This walkway, which has a terracotta color, and the rooftop are at the same level and separated by a very tiny guardrail that would be very easy to jump. The third picture shows a stairwell leading up to the walkway. Someone could simply go up the stairwell to the walkway, and the rooftop area was on the other side.

Accessing the rooftop couldn't have been easier, and getting off the rooftop was even easier. Robinson simply jumped from the rooftop into a grassy area, and even though it was quite some height, he made sure to shorten the fall by climbing down and then dropping onto the grass.

The Disassembly Question

Some people have made videos about how difficult it would be to disassemble a rifle right after having taken that shot. It's not that difficult, but the time it would have taken is relevant. In one of the initial assessment videos, seconds after the shot when everybody was dropping to the ground, you could see the figure of Tyler Robinson (or who is believed to be Tyler Robinson) running across the rooftop in the distance. He was running immediately and didn't stay there.

There was a screwdriver found at the scene of the sniper's nest. An Allen wrench would typically be used to disassemble this type of rifle, so the presence of a screwdriver is another inconsistency. However, there was apparently no disassembly needed as far as is known. He was carrying the rifle assembled in that black cloth, which is why he just ran away.

This represents a bit of an amateur mistake: he was wearing all black when he should have been wearing light gray or gray at least, because that would have made him harder to spot against the sky. Since he was wearing all black, it was really easy to spot him in the video. It's anyone's guess who all the people behind this are, because there has to be more than one of them.

The Weapon Specifications

The gun that killed Charlie Kirk was a Mauser 98K chambered in 30-06, a top-load, fire-bullet rifle. It had a five-round stripper clip and a 4x to 8x scope, the same type that were used in the Second World War. These guns are reputed for their accuracy and deadly firepower. They were the main weapon of choice for German snipers because they were so reliable, light, and precise. In the hands of a skilled operator at 200 yards or less, this would have been a highly effective weapon.

Unanswered Questions Remain

There are still many questions. The question about how to disassemble the rifle is somewhat misleading because Robinson apparently never disassembled the rifle. He just ran out with the rifle assembled, or what is believed to be the rifle assembled. Since the sound of the shot was consistent with a rifle, and the moment of the shot and Charlie receiving the projectile matches 140 yards, it can be assumed that it was a rifle at that distance, and presumably this was the rifle itself.

It would be relatively easy to match the bullet (whatever and wherever it is, as its location remains unknown) to determine if it was fired from this rifle. That is the easy part. But the critical questions remain: Who gave Tyler Robinson the rifle? Who provided him with the rifle? And in how many ways is he trying to deceive investigators into believing that his boyfriend knew nothing about this?

So many accounts, so many people in those Discord groups and Discord chats were already tweeting and sharing that something big was going to happen on September 10, that Charlie Kirk was coming to town, and to wait for something big. So many people knew. How many people were in the audience giving some kind of cue about when to shoot the rifle? There are still too many questions. The investigation is crawling very slowly toward these answers, but meanwhile, these are the pieces of the puzzle that need to be examined.

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Video Transcript

[00:00] Covering the assassination of Charlie Kirk we have spoken about a lot of

[00:04] topics from the angle of the shoulder to if he was part of a trans terrorist's

[00:11] cell online to what were those text messages that they were sharing but one

[00:17] piece of the puzzle that I haven't addressed at all up until now is well

[00:24] the rifle itself and there's a problem because there are inconsistencies in

[00:30] the reports of what people see in the pictures what the FBI says and what some

[00:36] say that is actually possible to do with a rifle under those circumstances so in

[00:42] this video I'm going to try to fit all the information in one and try to

[00:47] dispel some misconceptions of the case first one thanks to Phil hallway the

[00:53] uptick on this rifle the you know they the sites this rifle will make something

[00:58] 200 yards away appear to be right in front of you well within the

[01:02] capabilities of people without specialized training now this is like a

[01:07] kind of four to eight X site people are asking a very good question what is this

[01:14] cardboard box that isn't in the picture who provided this cardboard box was it

[01:21] there was it a behind the bushes on purpose that that would be a bit strange

[01:27] because the rifle should have been wrapped in a black cloth that was that

[01:32] Tyler Robinson used to be able to run with that now thanks to Alex Malone new

[01:38] countdown and some send me this reply there's a ton of stuff here that we

[01:43] should review about the rifle itself one thing is for certain the eye relief

[01:50] which is the distance between the sights and your eye when you're gonna

[01:55] shot the eye relief was too short on the murder weapon which means that the when

[02:00] you have the recoil you fire and you have the recoil because the rifle goes

[02:04] backwards because of physics then if there's too little eye relief the sights

[02:11] is gonna literally just hit your eye and well he should have he should still have

[02:18] maybe a black eye when he was caught we he should have had a black eye when he

[02:28] was taking the mugshot and he didn't but at this one time people are saying that

[02:32] okay there are discrepancies in the photos taken by the FBI of the actual

[02:38] murder weapon and a similar murder weapon similar Bowser in real life as in

[02:45] the FBI which I don't know so many of us have a problem trusting what they're

[02:51] doing the FBI states the rifle was a sport to rise mouse or m-98 chamber in

[02:58] 3006 a very common barrel length for this rifle is 24 inches this gives us a

[03:04] reference point for conducting measurements to ensure that the correct

[03:07] scale is obtained for this image overlay and image overlay with the run scale

[03:13] can skew later assessment so to understand if this optics were correct

[03:20] so that that is important to understand that and if that it would explain the

[03:26] absence of that black eye on Tyler Robinson's mugshot priors to consider

[03:31] the focal length of the FBI's image and the reference image from social media

[03:35] the focal length of the camera in which they took the picture is not known this

[03:40] is the most important factor when attempting to make even approximate

[03:43] measurements using a photo this is not a forensic analysis by any means this is

[03:47] merely intended to help identify discrepancies in the sequence of events

[03:51] so that these details can be investigated by the proper authorities and

[03:55] now we know that Robinson had this rifle on his right leg but at the same time I

[04:03] find it odd that even if he was limping walking to UVU right before taking the

[04:11] shot we can see that he was going up the to the rooftop and he was like bending

[04:19] his right leg with no problem which well it's quite a strange and doesn't fit

[04:26] what we have us in there are a few narratives regarding the rifle narrative

[04:33] number one the official story Robinson conducted the shooting and he acted

[04:37] alone thing I don't believe it for one second by the way some are claiming that

[04:44] maybe he dropped the rifle all right maybe he dropped the rifle at some point

[04:49] and when he dropped the rifle then the sights were slightly displaced and

[04:53] that's why we see a sight which is inconsistent with a proper position so

[04:59] you don't get a black eye with the shot that is just a theory that's something

[05:05] that could have happened but we are don't know we can't possibly know it

[05:09] didn't happen the narrative number two plausible alternative Robinson conducted

[05:14] the shooting but had help from the the public that is so far in my opinion 80%

[05:22] odd that that's what happened Robinson planned the attack with the help of

[05:26] others Robinson may have been the shooter but it wasn't his rifle

[05:30] narrative number three French position number one Robinson was not the shooter

[05:36] I still have a 10% odds that Robinson was not the actual shooter number two the

[05:43] rifle was staged again I'm really not sure about that I think that that's not

[05:49] what happened but I have to acknowledge that there's a non-zero chance that the

[05:56] rifle shot could have been the stage for another thing I have to have to give

[06:00] it to those theories number three his clothes change the backhoe is evidence

[06:05] that they don't have the right man important number four the security

[06:10] camera footage doesn't look like him I told I asked that question that was sent

[06:15] to me by email by the way and thank you for reaching out to me with all your

[06:20] tips no matter how crazy are the theories that you think that are out

[06:25] there I want to read them all and yes Robinson and his gay or trans boyfriend

[06:32] are really alike they look a lot like each other and number five he

[06:38] communicated with others who are more involved that is 100% in my opinion what

[06:44] happened going to stream lengths to make the FBI story true it is theoretically

[06:49] possible that number one the scope was properly mounted but shifted into an

[06:54] improbable position during the escape or the scope was never properly positioned

[06:59] and the shooter took the shot with a very suboptimal sight picture unlikely

[07:05] due to the suspect having some knowledge of firearms Tyler Robinson had a knowledge

[07:10] of firearms from a very young age number three the rifle did not belong to the

[07:15] shooter and was on loan from someone else who had mounted the scope in this

[07:19] manner and why would they mount the scope in that manner well number four

[07:26] this rifle was planted to make observers think that this was the weapon used that

[07:31] is another theory yet another theory that we don't know if when we what he was

[07:37] running with that the rifle on his hands with the that dark cloth if it was

[07:42] actually at the rifle inside a dark cloth we have no way of saying it we have

[07:47] to be clear on what is the evidence that we have and what we can but can we

[07:53] infer from what actually happened and another question I have been asked a lot

[07:58] is how can somebody just have access to a rooftop just just like that

[08:05] usually when you have universities and companies or any other structure you

[08:09] have like limited access or is the access is locked and thanks to gonsai

[08:15] martyr many are wondering how he can get a rifle on the roof in the first

[08:20] place easy first pic shows this sniper purge and this is the first picture this

[08:26] is where he was located on the roof you see it okay plain rooftop what is the

[08:32] second picture second picture you notice the roof level is even with an elevated

[08:37] walkway that is blocked by a railing this was a very easy to just jump this

[08:42] is the second picture you see that this is walkway right here which is like

[08:47] terracotta color and then the rooftop right here these are the same level and

[08:53] they are separated by a very tiny guardrail very easy to jump and the third

[08:59] peak is stairwell leading up to to the walkway this is a stairwell you can see

[09:06] that you could be here's a guy you're sitting in here and you could just go up

[09:12] to the walkway and the rooftop area was on the other side so yeah accessing the

[09:18] rooftop couldn't have been easier and getting off the rooftop was even easier

[09:24] you remember that he just jumped from the rooftop into this grassy area and

[09:30] even if it was quite some height he made sure to shorten the height by well

[09:34] climbing down and then dropping onto the grass now I've seen some people

[09:39] making videos about how it would be so difficult to disassemble a rifle just

[09:45] right after having landed that shot it's not that difficult but the time you it

[09:51] have it would have a taken him to disassemble and you remember that one of

[09:55] the videos that I show you at first in our first assessments of what happened

[10:01] seconds after the shot when everybody was dropping to the ground you could

[10:06] see the figure of Tyler Robinson or who we think is Tyler Robinson running

[10:13] across the rooftop in the distance he was actually running immediately he

[10:18] didn't stay there we know that there was a screwdriver in fact the thing that I

[10:24] don't understand is that this guy uses an Allen wrench to disassemble the rifle

[10:30] and there was a screwdriver in the scene of where in the in the snipers nest that

[10:37] he was so that is another inconsistency but the thing is that there was no

[10:44] disassemble needed as far as we know he was carrying the rifle assembled in that

[10:51] black cloth and that's why he just went running away by the way it's a bit of a

[10:59] this is a bit of an amateur mistake in which he was wearing all black when he

[11:07] should have been wearing a light gray or gray at least because that would have

[11:12] made him harder to spot against the sky since he was wearing all

[11:20] black then it was really easy to spot him in that video again it's

[11:25] anyone's guess who who are all the people who are behind this because there

[11:30] has to be more than one of them so he drops to the ground you can see that he

[11:34] was carrying something and then he just ran away we already went through that

[11:42] that that footage so the rifle itself thanks to Sebastian Lynch the gun that

[11:49] killed Charlie Kirk was a Mauser 98k 3006 top-load fire fire bullet rifle he

[11:55] had a five round stripper clip and a 4x to 8x scope the same that were used in

[12:01] the Second World War these guns are reputed for their accuracy and deadly

[12:07] firepower they were the main weapon of choice German snipers used because they

[12:11] were so reliable reliable light and precise in the hands of a skilled

[12:16] operator at 200 jars or less Charlie was never going to win that debate I pray

[12:21] for his family and pray for the Lord that they might find us out of the world

[12:27] and the evil that caused this remove that evil this is the model of the

[12:33] rifle you see that in this case this cope the eye relief makes more sense

[12:37] than the this which is way backwards so what happened still anyone's guess so

[12:46] yes there are still some questions I think that the question that the how to

[12:51] disassemble the rifle as a bit misleading because no he never

[12:56] disassembled the rifle he just ran out with the rifle assemble or what we think

[13:01] was the rifle assembled but since the sound of the shot was consistent with a

[13:08] rifle the moment of the shot and Charlie getting the the the projectile

[13:18] matches 140 yards we can assume that was a rifle at that distance and we need

[13:25] to assume that this was the rifle itself I guess that it is really easy but

[13:31] really really easy to match the bullet whatever it is because we have no idea

[13:38] where the bullet is to if it was fired from this that that is that is the easy

[13:42] part but again who gave a Tyler Robinson the rifle who provided him with

[13:49] the rifle and how in how many ways he's trying to fool us into believing that

[13:57] his boyfriend knew nothing about this and so many accounts so many people

[14:02] those discord groups and those discourse chats already tweeting and sharing that

[14:08] something was something big was going to happen on September 10 that Charlie

[14:13] Carrick is coming to town wait for something big so many people knew how

[14:17] many people were in the audience giving him some kind of cue about when to shoot

[14:24] a rifle well there's still too many questions we are just crawling very

[14:33] slowly to the to these answers but meanwhile these are the pieces of the

[14:37] puzzle that we need to deal with you have any any tips my ex my Instagram and

[14:43] the email I are right there in the description of this video my name is

[14:47] Jesus and Rick Ross us I'm the button language guy much love and bliss

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