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Tucker Carlson Questions Who Benefits From Potential Iran War as Massive Military Buildup Unfolds in Middle East
Tucker Carlson raises questions about the potential military conflict with Iran as the United States deploys its largest military force to the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion. With over 150 aircraft, a third of active US ships, and advanced weaponry now positioned in the region, Carlson questions what America stands to gain from this conflict. He argues that the war serves regional interests rather than American security, warning of devastating economic consequences, potential loss of American lives, and the depletion of US munitions that could leave the country vulnerable for a decade. Carlson suggests that pressure for regime change in Iran comes primarily from Israel and its advocates, not from within the Trump administration, and warns that such a war could fundamentally damage American sovereignty and unity.
Unprecedented Military Buildup in the Middle East
The United States has amassed its largest military force in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion. The deployment includes more than 150 aircraft shifted to bases in Europe and the Middle East, with a key air base in Jordan serving as a major destination for US air assets streaming into the region. Satellite imagery taken recently revealed more than 60 warplanes, including over a dozen F-35 fighter jets lined up on a tarmac.
Roughly a third of all active US ships are now positioned in the region. The warships carry hundreds of Tomahawk missiles, and aircraft carriers accompanied by guided missile destroyers and various aircraft and helicopters are stationed throughout the area. The USS Abraham Lincoln has not publicly broadcast its location for more than a week but is believed to be operating somewhere near Oman. The USS Gerald R. Ford was spotted off the Greek island of Crete. The scale of this military positioning has not been seen in two decades.
Questions About the Nuclear Threat Narrative
The stated justification for this military buildup centers on Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program. However, questions have emerged about the consistency of this narrative. President Trump ordered strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in July, which were reported to have destroyed the targets. Yet six months later, the administration is again citing the need to stop Iran's nuclear program.
Tucker Carlson challenges the accuracy of claims being made about Iran's nuclear capabilities. He specifically called out statements claiming Iran possesses nuclear-tipped ICBMs, describing such assertions as false and something the people making them know to be untrue. Carlson emphasizes that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon or the means to deliver one to the United States.
What Does America Gain From This Conflict?
Carlson poses a fundamental question: What does the United States actually gain from a war with Iran? While acknowledging that Israel may benefit from such a conflict, he questions why American forces should be deployed for objectives that don't clearly serve American interests. He notes that he watched a debate where pro-Israel advocates openly stated that Israel benefits from this action, which he accepts as their right to advocate for, but maintains that American policymakers should be focused on American benefits.
According to Carlson, President Trump has been transparent about not wanting this war. Trump has stated publicly and privately that he wants a diplomatic solution, ran against going to war, and doesn't want to see military conflict, though he also doesn't want Iran to possess nuclear weapons. Carlson believes Trump's reluctance is genuine based on his conversations with the president.
The Enormous Risks of Military Action
A war with Iran carries massive potential consequences for the United States. The conflict could cause major disruption to the US economy, result in American casualties among the tens of thousands of military and non-military personnel in the region, and potentially disable some of America's closest allies in the Gulf States who supply energy for global civilization.
Iran is a nation of 92 million people occupying a huge landmass. The current plan reportedly focuses on taking out Iran's leadership but lacks any clear strategy for what comes after. This would create an open wound in the region, potentially triggering massive refugee crises. These refugees would likely flow into Europe, continuing the immigration challenges there, into Gulf States across the Persian Gulf, and into the United States itself.
America's Limited Military Capacity
Pentagon assessments, which have been publicly reported, indicate that the United States is not in a position to sustain a prolonged conflict. If the war extends for two to three weeks or a month, the United States will not have enough munitions to wage a major war for ten years afterward. The country lacks the industrial capacity to quickly replace expended munitions, having already used significant quantities in defense of Israel over the past year and in Ukraine.
Reports indicate that Dan Radosevich Kane, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, has expressed concerns that this conflict could easily become a prolonged quagmire, though President Trump has disputed these characterizations. Carlson notes that no one he has spoken with in the Pentagon feels confident about America's readiness for this type of extended engagement.
Regional Power Dynamics and Israeli Interests
Carlson frames the potential conflict not as protection for the United States or even primarily for Israel's immediate security, but as part of a larger strategy to eliminate opposition to Israeli regional dominance. As the only nuclear-armed power in the Middle East, Israel seeks control over the region, similar to how every nuclear-armed power seeks influence in its sphere. The United States, for example, asserts interests in South American affairs as the dominant power in the Western Hemisphere.
What stands in the way of Israeli regional hegemony? Primarily Iran, but also Turkey, and the six Gulf energy-producing monarchies, particularly Qatar, which doesn't always follow Israel's lead. The United States itself also acts as a constraint, with Trump setting boundaries on Israeli actions such as expansion in the West Bank. According to Carlson, Israel has strategic reasons to want American influence in the region reduced.
The India Pivot
Israel is reportedly pivoting from reliance on the United States to a closer alliance with India. As a country of only 9 million people, Israel needs to be in alliance with a larger nuclear-armed power to ensure its survival. With American support for Israel declining domestically, India represents a new strategic partner. Prime Minister Modi met with Netanyahu in the Knesset, signaling this shift. Carlson suggests this represents Israel's last opportunity to use US military power to remove obstacles to controlling the Middle East and expanding its borders through the Levant into Syria and Lebanon and potentially beyond.
Comparisons to the Iraq War
Carlson draws parallels to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which occurred almost exactly 33 years ago. Iraq had 25 million people and was one-sixteenth the size of Iran, yet American forces remained there for 20 years and never fully pacified the country. Iran, by comparison, has 92 million people, has been under sanctions since 1979, represents the oldest civilization in the world, and possesses a huge non-nuclear arsenal of ballistic missiles. The land mass, population, and armaments of a country are relevant facts that help determine the outcomes of wars and occupations.
The Iraq War was waged based on claims about weapons of mass destruction that turned out to be false. The people who planned that war now acknowledge it was done for Israel's benefit. Similar claims are being made about Iran possessing WMD, which Carlson asserts are also untrue. But it took 20 years to fully understand the truth about Iraq's WMD. If war with Iran proceeds based on similar false premises, the consequences could be even more severe.
The Power of Repetition
Carlson describes the advocacy for war as a form of creating reality through repetition. By constantly repeating certain narratives—that military action is necessary, that it's good for America, that anyone who opposes it is disloyal—advocates attempt to speak these things into being. This represents a kind of incantation, where describing something over and over is meant to make it true. Yet no one is making a substantive case for how this war makes Americans richer, safer, or happier.
Concerns About American Sovereignty
If this war proceeds, Carlson warns of profound long-term consequences beyond the immediate conflict. Unlike the Iraq War, where it took two decades for Americans to understand the true motivations, a war with Iran would immediately reveal to every American that it wasn't done for US interests but for a country of 9 million people. At that point, it becomes clear that the United States lacks true sovereignty and that American leaders acted at the behest of foreign interests. Carlson expresses deep concern about what this realization would mean for the American political system and national unity, worrying not just about the war itself but about the permanent damage to the country's sense of self-governance.
Video Transcript
[00:00] Who benefits if we bomb Iran? The This
[00:03] is scary. Okay, here's the latest.
[00:06] >> We have the largest uh force amassed in
[00:10] the Middle East since 2003. The
[00:13] deployment is unlike anything the US has
[00:14] done since 20 2003 when it amassed the
[00:16] forces behind the invasion of Iraq.
[00:18] We've shifted more than 150 aircraft to
[00:20] bases in Europe and the Middle East. Um
[00:23] the it's I don't know how you pronounce
[00:26] it, but there's an air base we have in
[00:27] Jordan that's been a key destination for
[00:29] US air assets streaming into the region.
[00:31] More than 60 warplanes were visible in
[00:33] satellite imagery taken Friday. More
[00:35] than a dozen F-35 fighter jets lined up
[00:37] on a tarmac. Roughly a third of all
[00:40] active US ships are now in the region.
[00:42] Warships in the area also equipped with
[00:43] hundreds of tomahawk missiles. Aircraft
[00:45] carriers accompanied by guided missile
[00:47] destroyers and various aircraft and
[00:50] helicopters. The USS Abraham Lincoln,
[00:53] uh, USS Gerald R. Ford. The Lincoln has
[00:56] not publicly broadcast its location for
[00:58] more than a week, but it's believed to
[00:59] be operating somewhere near Oman. Uh,
[01:01] Gerald R. Ford spotted off the Greek
[01:02] island of Cree on Monday. And I could I
[01:05] could go on. Um, somewhere Lindsey
[01:08] Graham just got a chill down his spine
[01:10] and that special little feeling just at
[01:12] the list of that military buildup.
[01:14] Tucker, I you're having a different
[01:16] feeling. So am I. Uh, I don't get it. I
[01:19] gotta be honest. I don't get it because
[01:21] we were just told by the president in
[01:23] July. I covered it at length. You didn't
[01:26] want him to go into Iran with those
[01:28] bombs in July. We did. I was fine with
[01:32] it. That that I was like, whatever.
[01:33] Okay, fine. Let's take out the military
[01:35] facility or the nuclear facility. And
[01:36] then when they said they destroyed it,
[01:38] >> I didn't know. I saw the conflicting
[01:41] reporting on whether we did or we
[01:42] didn't. But the president certainly said
[01:43] we did. And now here we are six months
[01:45] later saying we have to go back in to
[01:47] stop the nuclear program. The one that
[01:48] we just allegedly bombed and destroyed a
[01:51] few months ago,
[01:51] >> right?
[01:52] >> Um I watched a debate on Piers Morgan
[01:54] today with two pro-Israel folks and two
[01:56] anti and the pro-Israel woman was
[01:58] saying, "Yeah, Israel benefits. It's
[02:00] this is this is definitely good for
[02:01] Israel. Of course, we want this, right?
[02:03] >> I I accept that. I've heard you say on
[02:04] your show, great. No problem.
[02:07] >> But what what do we get out of it?" Like
[02:09] that's fine for them to want it and
[02:10] advocate. What do we get out of it? Why
[02:12] is President Trump considering this?
[02:14] >> I don't think the president wants to do
[02:16] it. I think he's been really clear about
[02:17] that. Um I I spoke to him the other day.
[02:20] He didn't say anything to me that he
[02:22] doesn't say in public all the time.
[02:23] Trump is amazingly transparent in that
[02:25] way. I've spoken to him a lot. I speak
[02:27] to him regularly a lot. And he never
[02:29] says anything that he wouldn't say in
[02:31] the middle of a speech. You know,
[02:33] there's no like there's no secret agenda
[02:35] that I've ever detected. And he said, "I
[02:38] don't want to do this. I want a
[02:39] diplomatic solution. I don't want to go
[02:40] to war. I ran against going to war. I
[02:42] don't want Iran to have a nuclear
[02:43] weapon. That's what he says in public
[02:45] and in private on the phone and in
[02:47] person and on stage. And so I believe
[02:49] it. Um Iran doesn't have a nuclear
[02:52] weapon. It doesn't have the means to get
[02:53] a nuclear weapon if it had a nuclear
[02:55] weapon to the United States. Mark Levin
[02:57] said 3 days ago in his podcast, they've
[02:59] got nuclear tipped ICBMs. That's a
[03:00] that's a lie. He should be removed from
[03:02] his job for saying that because it's
[03:03] untrue and he knows it's untrue. This is
[03:05] not about protecting the United States
[03:07] >> among many other reasons.
[03:08] >> Well, that's right. But but you this is
[03:10] incredibly high stakes. I mean I could
[03:12] go on for an hour about what could go
[03:14] wrong in this war if it takes place. I
[03:17] think it's likely to take place but it's
[03:19] not assured. The president decides and
[03:21] he has not made that decision. But all
[03:23] things being equal, it will happen. And
[03:25] you could see massive disruption to the
[03:27] US economy. You could see a lot of
[03:28] Americans die. There are tens of
[03:29] thousands in the region both military
[03:31] and non-military. And you could see some
[03:33] of our closest allies in the world, the
[03:35] Gulf States, who supply the energy for
[03:37] civilization around the world. You could
[03:39] see them disabled by this. And then you
[03:42] could see massive refugee crises around
[03:45] the world because the plan is to take
[03:48] out the leadership of Iran, but there's
[03:50] no plan after that. So it would be an
[03:52] open wound. 92 million people on a huge
[03:55] land mass and that would continue the
[04:00] invasion of Europe by immigrants. A lot
[04:03] of them would wind up in the Gulf States
[04:05] directly across the Persian Gulf and a
[04:06] lot of them would wind up here in the
[04:08] United States. So there's kind of no
[04:10] upside. But here's the way to think
[04:11] about it. We're looking at it through
[04:13] the wrong frame. This is not about
[04:14] protecting the United States. Obviously,
[04:16] it's not about even protecting Israel.
[04:18] If you're Israel and your main goal is
[04:20] not to get hit and to keep your city
[04:23] safe, the last thing you're going to do
[04:24] is try to provoke Iran into lobbing
[04:26] ballistic missiles into your country,
[04:27] you would never do that. No, this is
[04:30] about
[04:31] sweeping away any opposition to Israel's
[04:34] regional hegemony. Israel believes as
[04:37] the only nuclear armed power in the
[04:39] Middle East that it should have control
[04:40] over the region. And by the way, I'm not
[04:42] attacking them. Every nuclear armed
[04:44] power feels that way. We feel that way.
[04:46] What's going on in South America? We we
[04:48] have a right to to weigh in on that
[04:49] because we're the big dog. They feel
[04:51] that way. And what stands in their way?
[04:53] Well, Iran primarily, also Turkey, and
[04:56] then the six Gulf energy producing
[04:59] monarchies,
[05:01] primarily Qatar because they're
[05:04] disobedient. They don't follow Israel's
[05:06] lead on a lot of different things. And
[05:09] this war and of course the United States
[05:11] because the United States is constantly
[05:12] telling Israel, you know, you can do
[05:13] this, you can't do that. Trump's like,
[05:14] no, you can't take over the entire West
[05:16] Bank. and kick all the Christians out or
[05:19] whatever. He, you know, the United
[05:20] States is a constraint on Israel. So
[05:22] they want the US out of the region. Why
[05:24] wouldn't they? And they're of course
[05:26] pivoting to India. Israel is has decided
[05:29] it needs a superpower to exist. It's
[05:31] only 9 million people. It's a really
[05:32] small country. So they have to be in
[05:34] alliance with a larger nuclear armed
[05:36] power. They have to or they won't exist.
[05:38] And they've picked India. Prime Minister
[05:40] Modi was in the Knesset yesterday and
[05:42] meeting with Netanyahu yesterday. And
[05:44] that is the plan. Israel will pivot from
[05:46] the United States to India. And I don't
[05:50] think anyone's even pretending that's
[05:51] not happening because support for Israel
[05:53] in the United States is going down. So
[05:54] this is the last opportunity for Israel
[05:57] to use the US military to sweep away one
[06:01] of the few remaining speed bumps on the
[06:04] way to controlling the entire Middle
[06:06] East and having hegemony. And what does
[06:07] that mean? Well, Israel would like to
[06:08] expand its borders through the Levant
[06:11] into Syria. They're already taking land
[06:12] there. and into Lebanon. Same thing. And
[06:15] maybe even extending farther north from
[06:17] that. But Israel wants to be physically
[06:19] larger. Every country does. We do. This
[06:22] is just a feature of human nature. But
[06:24] they want to be larger and they can't
[06:26] because Iran's in the way. Qatar's in
[06:28] the way. The US is in the way. And
[06:29] Turkeykey's in the way. So one by one,
[06:31] they're diminishing them. Does anyone
[06:32] think America will be stronger after
[06:34] this war? Of course not. America will be
[06:36] weaker. We can't afford it. We have no
[06:37] money.
[06:37] >> We don't know how long it will last. All
[06:39] the reports in the news are that even
[06:41] Dan Raisen Kane, the chairman of the
[06:43] Joint Chiefs, has been saying this could
[06:45] easily spin into a very prolonged
[06:47] quagmire. President Trump truth out.
[06:49] That's not true. He'll do whatever I ask
[06:51] him to. He he's ready to go. All he
[06:53] knows how to do is win. But I mean, it's
[06:55] been reported in multiple papers now
[06:57] that Kaine is saying this this is
[06:59] fraught. This could be
[07:01] >> I don't know anyone who doesn't feel
[07:03] that way. No one in the Pentagon. I've
[07:04] talked to a bunch of people in the
[07:05] Pentagon. We don't have the munitions
[07:06] for this. Okay. just to be and this has
[07:08] again been reported publicly. This is
[07:10] not secret. It is a fact and this is the
[07:12] analysis of the Pentagon that if this
[07:15] war goes two weeks, three weeks, a
[07:18] month, the United States will not have
[07:21] enough munitions to wage a major war for
[07:24] 10 years. Okay? No war with a pure or
[07:27] nearpeer nation for 10 years because we
[07:29] don't have the industrial capacity to
[07:31] replace those munitions. We've already
[07:32] expended so many of them in defense of
[07:34] Israel in the last 12 months
[07:36] >> in Ukraine. and and in Ukraine. So, it's
[07:38] like
[07:40] >> there's no way that this helps the
[07:41] United States. We're not in a a place to
[07:43] do it. I strongly think the president
[07:45] understands that. Certainly, there's no
[07:47] one that I'm Let me just be blunt.
[07:49] There's no one I'm aware of in this
[07:51] administration who is aggressively
[07:53] pushing for this war. All of the
[07:55] pressure is coming from Netanyahu. It's
[07:57] why he went to the White House seven
[07:58] times in one year. It wasn't to be nice.
[08:00] It was to push for regime change in
[08:02] Iran. I'm not attacking him. That's not
[08:04] anti-Semitic. It's not even anti-Israel.
[08:06] It's an acknowledgement of the truth.
[08:08] And no matter what you slander people
[08:11] with, in the end, the truth remains
[08:13] true. Sorry. And so they want this. The
[08:16] only reason we would
[08:17] >> not just him, not just him, his his
[08:19] rapidly neocon friends here, like Mark
[08:22] Leavvin, like Lindsey Graham. I mean,
[08:24] there really is a bloodlust by some here
[08:27] domestically who do have the ear of the
[08:29] president to to take out this regime as
[08:31] though it's going to be as easy as the
[08:33] Maduro raid.
[08:34] Well, but everyone look it this is again
[08:37] a country of 92 million people that has
[08:40] been under sanctions since 1979. It is
[08:43] an enormous country. It's the oldest
[08:45] civilization in the world and they have
[08:46] a huge non-nuclear arsenal of ballistic
[08:50] missiles. Huge. It's you know the
[08:52] estimates of this are publicly
[08:53] available. You could bore yourself all
[08:54] day reading about it. This is a very
[08:57] serious thing. When we invaded Iraq in
[08:59] 2003, almost exactly 33 years ago, that
[09:04] country had 25 million people and it was
[09:07] 16th the size of Iran and we were there
[09:09] for 20 years and we never fully pacified
[09:11] it. This is a country of 92 million
[09:15] people and like reality matters actually
[09:17] like the number of people who live in
[09:18] your country, the armaments they
[09:19] possess, its land mass. These are
[09:21] relevant facts for people who play in
[09:23] wars and they help determine the
[09:24] outcomes of those wars and occupations.
[09:27] So, this is pure insanity. And what
[09:30] people like Levvin, whom I'm not
[09:32] attacking, I feel sorry for because he's
[09:33] clearly living in hell. But what they're
[09:34] trying to do is a species of witchcraft.
[09:38] And it's really simple. You repeat
[09:40] something until it becomes true. Kamini
[09:43] must die. We're going into war. We're
[09:44] going to knock off the government. This
[09:46] is good for us. Anyone who's against it
[09:47] is an anti-semit, a Nazi, should be
[09:49] expelled. Benedict Arnold, not allowed
[09:50] in the White House. You keep repeating
[09:52] things that are untrue until they become
[09:56] true. You speak
[09:59] >> you create truth by speaking. In the
[10:02] beginning was the word, right? There is
[10:04] a there's a holy power. There's a
[10:06] supernatural power in words. Describing
[10:08] things is different from simply doing
[10:10] them. And if you you can talk reality
[10:13] into being. This is what an incantation
[10:15] is. This what a spell is. It's not like
[10:17] spooky like crazy stuff. It's the lived
[10:21] reality of every person. Say it and it
[10:23] becomes true. And that's exactly what
[10:26] they're trying to do. And nobody is
[10:28] making the case for how how does this
[10:30] help the United States? How does this
[10:31] make us richer, safer, happier? Zero.
[10:35] And my concern is if this actually
[10:37] happens, and it's likely to, what then?
[10:40] There will be no defense. Like the we
[10:43] waged the Iraq war for Israel. It's
[10:45] obvious now. The people who planned it
[10:47] say that out loud. There was there were
[10:48] no WMD. The Israelis told us there were
[10:51] WMD. There weren't. We know that now.
[10:53] They're telling us there are WMD in
[10:54] Iran. Also untrue. But it took 20 years
[10:57] to figure that out. If we go in maybe at
[11:00] the end of this week or whenever, every
[11:02] American will know this wasn't done for
[11:04] us. It was done for a country of 9
[11:06] million people. Where are we then? Then
[11:09] it's clear we have no sovereignty. It's
[11:11] clear who did this to us. Our leaders,
[11:14] our leaders did this to us at the behest
[11:16] of foreigners. And you sort of feel like
[11:18] at that point, I I don't know how the
[11:20] system works. At that point, I'm really
[11:21] worried about not just the war, but the
[11:23] long-term effects on our country.
[11:25] >> We've done enough for Israel.
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