Tucker Carlson Warns Donald Trump Against War With Iran Despite Media Pressure and Netanyahu Push

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Tucker Carlson Warns Donald Trump Against War With Iran Despite Media Pressure and Netanyahu Push

Tucker Carlson examines the massive American military buildup near Iran and the coordinated media campaign pushing for war. While most Americans remain unaware or opposed to conflict with Iran, Carlson details how Fox News, the Wall Street Journal, and establishment voices are advocating for regime change despite the president's reluctance. He argues Trump has not decided on war, though all momentum points that direction. Carlson questions whether this serves American interests or primarily benefits Israel's regional ambitions, warning of catastrophic economic consequences if energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf is disrupted. He criticizes figures like Lindsey Graham, Mark Levin, and media organizations for using fear-mongering and lies reminiscent of the Iraq War to manufacture consent, while journalists and dissenting voices face exclusion and attacks.

February 26, 2026

America's Largest Military Buildup Since Iraq

Between the Super Bowl halftime show, Epstein revelations, and Winter Olympics coverage, most Americans remain unaware that the United States stands on the verge of a massive regional war in the Middle East, potentially a third world war. The largest movement of American military hardware since the 2003 Iraq invasion now steams toward the Persian Gulf off Iran, preparatory to what could be the aforementioned war.

Most people probably didn't know this buildup was happening. Those who did know it weren't for it. Recent polls on the question "are you for a war with Iran?" show about one in five Americans support it. The rest are probably asking why we would have a war with Iran in the first place.

President Trump addressed the situation in his State of the Union and at a press conference, saying in public what he basically says in private. Trump being one of those rare public figures who's pretty much the same behind closed doors as he is on stage. He's been saying the same thing about Iran for a long time. Really two things: One, Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. He says it again and again. He really means it. That's not a talking point. It's completely sincere. And two, he would prefer a negotiated settlement. He would prefer peace rather than war.

Trump Has Not Decided on War

At the end of February 2026, this looming Iran war seems likely with all those aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf, planes ready, missiles ready, but it's not certain because the president hasn't decided to do it. You may not get that impression from watching the news. There is this sense that it's inevitable, and that's a scam designed to make you think there's nothing you can do about it. Trump has not decided to do this. Again, seems likely. All the momentum is in that direction, but the president's the sole decider on this question. He's the commander-in-chief, and he's showing no obvious signs of enthusiasm.

There are many reasons not to do this. The first being most Americans don't want it. Though it's not a direct democracy, it's a form of democracy, and you probably shouldn't commit history-changing acts without the support of your people. Trump feels that way. This is someone who pays very close attention to TV ratings. Why? Not just because he worked in TV, but because he thinks they're a pretty good measure of what people are interested in, and he cares about what people think. He's willing to listen to almost anybody.

Iran Is Not Iraq

The reason Trump isn't eager to start this war is because he in general isn't eager to start wars, but also because this would be a particularly tough war. This is the largest buildup since the Iraq war, but Iran is not Iraq. It's much, much bigger and much more technologically advanced.

The population of Iran is about 92 million. In 2003, when the United States rolled into Baghdad, the population of Iraq was 25 million. So Iran is more than three times bigger. The land mass of Iran is six times bigger. It's huge. It's a huge, pretty advanced country compared to Iraq.

Is the US military right now ready for a prolonged conflict with a big country? No, it turns out. Current estimates suggest that the United States is so low on some munitions, partly because they've been used in the defense of Israel already in the last 12 months, that were there to be even a brief but intense engagement with Iran, the military would not be ready for like 10 years to fight a real war against a peer or near-peer adversary. Out the window would go any hope of defending Taiwan because the stockpiles don't exist and the necessary industrial capacity to replace them quickly isn't there.

The Downstream Catastrophic Effects

The potential downsides are absolutely real. Lots of things could happen. There are tens of thousands of Americans in the region, of course, in uniform and out. They could be hurt or killed. There's Israel, which is probably a little more vulnerable than we pretend it is to conventional attacks from ballistic missiles. Do the math on how many missiles Iran is believed to have versus how many anti-ballistic missiles Israel has or the United States has to defend Israel. They could be in trouble.

Then there's the question of what happens to Iran. Does it fall apart? Does it disintegrate as a country? As of tonight, there is no Israeli plan for what comes the day after deposing the Ayatollah, knocking out the leadership of the country. What happens then? No one is thinking this through because the people pushing this clearly don't care what happens after. The point is to take out Iran as a coherent country, not to protect Israel, but in order to sweep Iran aside as a regional rival. Once Iran is gone, there's no question as to who controls the Middle East. It would be the only nuclear-armed power in the Middle East: Israel. Period. That's the reason.

The problem is if the country were to disintegrate, the downstream effects would be profound for everybody else. You would likely have refugee crises. Where would they go? Well, Europe. They might go right across the water to Qatar or UAE. That could be a huge problem.

What If Iran Fights Back?

What if Iran decides better to die on your feet than on your knees and just unleashes its conventional arsenal against American assets in the region, against Israel, and critically against energy infrastructure in the Gulf? You would see a global depression if they did that. If the extraction facilities and refineries and petrochemical plants in the Gulf were disabled, how expensive would oil be per barrel? How much would gasoline cost? What would steel go for? What would happen to liquefied natural gas, which goes to both Europe and China? What would happen to Europe if you disrupted the flow of LNG from the Gulf to Europe? What would happen if you close the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point at the end of the Persian Gulf?

It wouldn't destroy the world forever probably, but it would tank the economy in the meantime for sure. And who would suffer most? The Gulf States, Europe, and the United States. It's kind of weird that anybody, especially an ally, would push for a conflict that's almost guaranteed to hurt its so-called allies. You can tell me you love me, but if you're encouraging me to commit suicide, you're probably lying. It's possible that we should judge people's intentions by the effects of what they do, not by their own description of their motive.

Is Israel Moving On From the United States?

Is it possible that there is some hostility toward the United States, the Gulf States, and Europe from the people pushing this war? There's a lot of hostility. Part of it makes sense. The Gulf States, the six Arab oil-producing states called the GCC in the region, are along with Iran one of the main impediments to Israel's regional hegemony. They are very rich. They produce something that the rest of the world needs. They're also very good at diplomacy, particularly Qatar. They've positioned themselves as the Switzerland of the Middle East and they've done a good job at it. So they are a rival to Israel.

What about the United States, Israel's benefactor, its closest ally? Why would they want that weakened? Maybe if you're gaming this out, you've decided we need a new superpower. Public opinion in this country has swung against us so hard. This bipartisan consensus that we're its closest ally is disintegrating before our very eyes. This is not going to continue forever. We need another country to be aligned with.

How many big countries are there to choose from? It's got to be physically large, big population, nuclear armed. Not too many. In fact, the big ones would be China and India. But China is a Han ethnostate, so you can't really turn its population against itself in order to increase your own power. That leaves India. It was probably no coincidence that Prime Minister Modi spoke to the Knesset about the ancient ties between Israel and India.

Bottom line: Israel is moving on from the United States at some point, probably sooner rather than later, to India. So weakening the United States in a war with Iran is not all bad from that perspective. In fact, it might be good because then there's no rivalry at all in the region. It's you, the only country with nuclear weapons, and everybody else. You can do whatever you want. You don't have to worry about hostile neighbors. You can expand the size of your territory, for example. You can move your borders in all directions. Who's going to stop you? No one.

The Media Campaign for War

Why would Trump even be considering a war with Iran? One way to think about it is the United States may not have a choice about whether or not this war starts because the government of Benjamin Netanyahu could always act unilaterally, preemptively against Iran and just do it. Just strike Iran. What would happen then? Most likely the Iranians would strike Israel and then potentially strike American assets in the Gulf and then potentially strike energy facilities in the Gulf, and the United States would be by definition drawn in.

It's possible that the US government, while not anxious to go to war with Iran, is trying to find a way to contain the behavior of its closest ally, Israel, rather than sit back and wait for Netanyahu to do something that we have to clean up, that we're implicated in and then sucked into. It's possible that the US government is attempting to steer this in a less destructive direction.

None of this has filtered down to people paying attention because all the noise has been about Iran's nuclear weapons. They're on the verge of building a nuclear weapon any day now. If you're semi-awake, you may remember that it was only about eight months ago, back in June, during the short but hot 12-day war against Iran that the United States took out nuclear processing facilities deep underground and then announced, "We have ended the Iranian nuclear threat."

While you were on summer vacation or going to your kids' graduation or bringing them back to school or watching the Super Bowl halftime show with your jaw slack, all of a sudden that threat out of nowhere reemerged. There's Benjamin Netanyahu on television or at the White House for a seventh time in a single year making the case that we're right on the verge of a nuclear holocaust. Any day now, the Iranian government will have a nuclear weapon.

Netanyahu's 30-Year Claim

Benjamin Netanyahu has been saying exactly the same thing about Iran—they're about to have a nuclear weapon any minute—since at least 1996. Thirty years. In archived footage from that era, Netanyahu warned that Iran would have nuclear weapons within months or weeks. He made similar claims in the early 2000s, warning that Iran was racing toward nuclear capability. Year after year, the same warning.

It's not just the claim that Iran is seconds away from a nuclear weapon that they're recycling. It's maybe the oldest lie in American foreign policy: we need to do this because it's a despotic regime that is oppressing its own people. This line plays upon Americans' best quality, which is decency. Americans hate despotism. They believe freedom is granted them and all people by God. So a regime that oppresses its own people is inherently illegitimate. Americans are born believing that.

If you're trying to sell an illegitimate war waged for reasons that had nothing to do with human rights at all, you would use that line. American policymakers have used that line for decades. Lyndon Johnson in 1965 explained that the war in Vietnam was being fought so "each people may choose its own path to change." George W. Bush said before the Iraq war, "We have no ambition in Iraq except to remove a threat and restore control of that country to its own people." Dick Cheney said, "We will be greeted as liberators." Barack Obama in 2011 said regime change in Libya would serve America's "broader goal of a Libya that belongs not to a dictator, but to its people."

As long as people believe this or are so polite they pretend to believe it, politicians will keep telling the same lies. You have to make them pick a new lie.

Fox News and the Wall Street Journal Lead the Charge

This is a Republican administration and Republicans have one main news source: Fox News. Even as Fox News's reach and power and influence have diminished greatly, mostly due to technological changes, it has not broken the stranglehold that Fox has over Republicans in Washington. They watch Fox. They want to go on Fox. So Fox has really driven this war. If it occurs, you can thank Fox more than any other media organization, more than any other lobbyist, more honestly than any government, more than the government of Israel. Fox News has pushed for this war.

Its owners personally have pushed for it, and its employees on the channel have pushed for it with such aggression and unanimity that as of tonight there is not a single on-air Fox personality who is going to question going to war with Iran. There are some who may have reservations. There was one on a weekend show who very bravely spoke up and said, "Is this a good idea?" That was the last time this topic was discussed on that weekend show because the order has gone down to Fox employees: we are in favor of this war.

The Wall Street Journal, owned by the Murdoch family, has been by far the most egregious and the most stealthy because starting new regime change wars on behalf of Israel is like the whole reason to have the Wall Street Journal now apparently. Headlines include: "The diminishing risk of an Iran attack: Two years ago, there was a strong possibility the region would spiral out of control. Not anymore." Another: "A fractured Iran might not be so bad" because "its borders are artificial" and "a breakup would frustrate the interests of China, Russia, and others."

All borders are artificial. God didn't draw them. They're drawn by people. Iran is a country and has been for a while. If you blow it up into constituent parts and incite a civil war, there are going to be downstream effects like refugee crises into Europe and the Gulf States, probably the United States too, since it is the iron law of American foreign policy that once you start bombing people, you have to let all their angry kids into your country.

John Bolton wrote for the Wall Street Journal: "The Gaza ceasefire has diverted Western attention from the real threat: Tehran and its surrogates." You'd really have to be John Bolton to think that Tehran and its surrogates are even in the top hundred issues Americans are worried about at the moment. They're not.

The New York Post Abandons Its Identity

The New York Post, the scrappy New York tabloid famed for its rollicking crime headlines like "Headless body in topless bar," was a hilarious newspaper until two years ago when Lachlan Murdoch took full control of it. Now it's like Commentary, like any other publication from a neocon think tank in Washington, just advocating for war and lying to you in order to get you to support it.

Headlines include: "Memo to President Trump: Don't miss this historic moment to strike Iran and end its terror regime." "Iran's rulers plainly fear US strikes. Trump should prove them right." "If Trump doesn't strike Iran now, history will never forgive him." Hundreds of millions of Americans will forgive him. They'll be grateful to him for pulling us back from the brink of something we don't need and don't want.

Douglas Murray wrote: "Trump has a chance to end Khamenei's reign of terror in Iran." Because if there's one thing Douglas is concerned about, it's human rights in Iran.

The New York Times Joins In

The New York Times is the most liberal publication in the world. It's totally different from Fox News except on a few questions like immigration and war and the basis of our economy, which is finance and real estate. On those issues, there's vigorous consensus. In other words, except on the issues that actually matter, that drive history, that determine whether or not your children thrive in this country. On those issues, they're one and the same.

Bret Stephens has written multiple pieces: "The case for striking Iran," "Can we let Iran get away with mass murder?," "Israel had the courage to do what needed to be done," "The case for overthrowing Maduro," "The Syria opportunity," "We absolutely need to escalate in Iran." His personal favorite from 2023: "20 years later, I don't regret supporting the Iraq war."

If you don't regret supporting the Iraq war, if that support occasioned no soul-searching in you, then you have a spiritual problem. All of us make mistakes. All of us support dumb things. The acid test is not do you make mistakes. The acid test is do you admit that you did and do you apologize? If you refuse to do either one of those things and instead 20 years later are still bragging about the greatest disaster in modern American history as if it's a badge of honor, that's contemptible and scary.

Lindsey Graham's Bloodlust

One of the main cheerleaders for an invasion of Iraq and every other invasion would be Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. Watch his eyes as he discusses war. You can see that he is maybe for the first time that day feeling elevated and light and happy, but also tantalized. You can almost watch his mouth fill with saliva. Some people feel this way in strip bars, others in bakeries. Lindsey Graham is excited by killing.

Graham's statements include: "Changes coming to Iran. It'll be the biggest change in the history of the Middle East to get rid of this Nazi regime. Hit Iran. They have oil fields out in the open. Blow it off the map. There's an opportunity to hit the Iran nuclear program in a fashion I haven't seen in decades. Be all-in, President Trump, in helping Israel eliminate the nuclear threat. If we need to provide bombs to Israel, provide bombs. If we need to fly planes with Israel, do joint operations. If I were you, Mr. President, I would kill the leadership that are killing the people. To the ayatollahs, you need to understand if you keep killing your people who are demanding a better life, Donald J. Trump is going to kill you."

This guy is taken very seriously by his colleagues in the Senate, not just the Republicans but also the Democrats, and he's taken very seriously by Republicans in Washington more broadly. This has an effect. That effect could get us into certainly the worst war in 23 years.

Mark Levin's Lies

Nobody has elevated his own visibility to a greater extent or worked harder to get the United States into war with Iran than Mark Levin has. He's done it not through brilliant argument or incisive analysis, but basically through screaming. As we get closer to the time where this war could actually start, Levin has decided to just make stuff up.

In a recent podcast, Levin told his listeners that Iran has nuclear-tipped ICBMs aimed at the United States. He said: "Those nuclear ICBMs aren't aimed for Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. They're aimed for New York and Los Angeles and Chicago and everywhere in between and around the United States of America."

Iran does not have nuclear-tipped ICBMs, and they're not aimed at the United States. That is a lie. It is a provable lie. Why is he saying that? Not because he hopes to win an argument, but because he hopes to whip his listeners into such a frenzy of fear and rage that they will support something that will hurt them. This will hurt the United States almost without question if it happens.

Levin also tweeted: "Iran producing ballistic missiles with chemical and biological warheads. We mustn't delay any longer." They have WMD. Where did that information come from? It came from an aligned publication in Washington. Is there any evidence of that? No, of course there's no evidence of that. That lie originated in the same place the original WMD lie originated in 2002 before the Iraq war: in Israel.

If you followed Mark Levin's Twitter feed, you'll see that he's given up all argument, any attempt to win anyone over, and instead repeating "Kill Khamenei, take out Khamenei" every single day. This is a kind of witchcraft. It's the idea that if you repeat something enough, you can will it into existence. The words alone will make it real. God isn't fooled, but people are.

Intelligence Agencies and Media Collusion

Clayton Morris, former Fox News anchor, joined the discussion and noted that there's no daylight between the parties on this issue. "We call it a uniparty. They are in lockstep on this issue. Very few voices are speaking out about it. If they do, they get pushed out. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz questioning why we're in Syria—how dare you? Thomas Massie, Rand Paul, but there's very little daylight in these parties on this issue at all. They desperately want war."

Morris explained the financial incentives: "For most of these people, it's probably about the money. It's the massive military-industrial complex. The amount of money that we're spending on this—to go to war in Iran or Libya or Iraq or Afghanistan or whatever other boogeyman of the week—whether it's Russia through Ukraine, weapons that wind up in Mexico, shut up. Don't ask those questions. The military-industrial complex sits in the neighborhoods of most members of Congress, whether you drive to Colorado Springs or Wichita, Kansas. There's going to be some arm of Northrop Grumman or Boeing or Honeywell receiving trillions of dollars now as part of this massive boondoggle."

On intelligence agency involvement in media, Morris confirmed: "You'd definitely be on the right track. Up until a few years ago, you would have been labeled a conspiracy theorist. We only learned about it through the Church Committee. Go back to the JFK assassination and Project Mockingbird and the infiltration of reporters at the Washington Post and the wiretapping of reporters. That was the clandestine CIA operations. Then it morphed into Operation Mockingbird where they were installing members of the intelligence community in newsrooms, particularly CBS News, the New York Times, and others. Once that was exposed, it morphed into now they're just on the payroll of these networks. They're not even hiding in the shadows anymore. You just have people like Mike Pompeo on the payroll of major networks, or reporters who are embedded inside the Pentagon like Jennifer Griffin who literally on Fox News said it's not a matter of if we go to war with Iran, it's a matter of when."

The Epstein Connection

Morris also addressed media silence on the Epstein story: "Just look at the Epstein story. Where is the mainstream media? They're not covering it at all. Not even not covering it, they're refusing to have voices on their air who could actually provide real value, real source material. I'm speaking to a source who's recently been to Epstein Island, and on Epstein Island there's still papers, Jeffrey Epstein's papers scattered all over, his books, materials everywhere, just laying there, not gathered up by the FBI, not gathered up and being investigated. Where is this information in the mainstream media? Where are any deeper questions about Epstein's murder and all of the inconsistencies that appeared that day at the prison?"

He noted Fox News's conspicuous lack of coverage of Pam Bondi's hearing: "Fox News loves to go wall-to-wall with whoever, whatever member of the cabinet is going to be there. Let's check in now with Kash Patel testifying before Congress. Spend an hour, two hours, senators asking questions. Pam Bondi coverage—shame on you if you tuned into Fox News to see deep coverage of Pam Bondi being grilled over the Epstein files. Sorry, you weren't going to see it. MSNBC carried it, CNN carried it, but Fox News? Why do they not want to show Pam Bondi being questioned about the Epstein files when normally they'd be covering that wall to wall?"

Morris explained why the coverup crosses party lines: "Marjorie Taylor Greene admitted that President Trump called her and asked her not to vote for the discharge petition, the Epstein Transparency Act. In her words, quoting her, she said the president told me that too many of my friends would be hurt. I think that's at the heart of it. There's a reason we haven't seen any of the financial information yet. It's a strategy of tension to keep us in this chaos, a drip feed of information. We get disparate pieces of emails, but no financial information, no transactions that connect point A to point B. We get random pieces, but do we get financial connections, financial transactions which the DOJ is sitting on? Why don't we see any of that information?"

He pointed to New York Times involvement: "You have Landon Thomas whose name shows up as part of the Epstein investigation. He was writing about Epstein from the New York Times, financial reporter, writing about Epstein back during his first arrest. Then you have Nellie Bowles who is the partner of Bari Weiss, who gets assigned by the New York Times as a tech reporter to go and do a profile piece on Jeffrey Epstein. The New York Times put you up to going to a known pedophile sex trafficker's house? As a tech reporter? It just doesn't make any sense."

The Path Forward

The decision on war with Iran has not yet been made. President Trump remains the sole decider. The idea that war is inevitable is designed to make Americans think there's nothing they can do about it. But Trump is listening, and he pays attention to what people think. He's willing to listen to almost anybody.

Now is the time for anyone who knows Donald Trump, has a good relationship with him, likes him, loves the United States, to call and say, "Whoa, wait a second. Have some concerns here." Now is the time, right now, because the decision has not yet been made. But it's not just aggression driving this war push, it's also lying to create fear and manufacture consent.

The proponents of this war have made no effort to convince the American public it's a good idea. They are staying up night and day convincing the decision makers it's a good idea. They're trying to shout down and threaten and defame and slander and exclude anybody who has a contrary view, who might pipe up and say, "Wait a second. Are we sure this is a good idea?"

Keep praying. The game is to make sure that the only noise in the room comes from the war advocates until someone pushes play and it's too late to stop it. And at that point, they can all pretend they were never for this or they just did it wrong. We've seen this movie so many times.

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