Charlie Kirk and Dr. Paul Ray Unpack the 46-Year War Iran Has Waged Against the West

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[00:59] Okay everybody, welcome back.

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[01:15] Joining us now is Dr. Paul Ray,

[01:18] professor of history at Hillsdale

[01:19] College and war historian. Dr. Ray,

[01:21] thank you for your patience and time

[01:23] with us. One day when I meet you, I'll

[01:24] tell you all the fun backstory of our

[01:26] first attempted interview. Uh but now

[01:28] we're live on air. So uh thank you for

[01:31] thank you for your understanding, sir.

[01:33] Um so Dr. Ray, uh you are like an

[01:36] encyclopedia on wars. Uh and and you've

[01:39] studied and watched the Middle East for

[01:40] decades.

[01:42] Kind of give us your historical and just

[01:45] commentary on what we've witnessed the

[01:47] last couple of weeks and how it fits in

[01:50] in Middle East history.

[01:53] Okay, let me start by saying that when

[01:56] people talk about a 12-day war, they're

[01:58] wrong. It's been a 46-year war. That war

[02:02] began in 1979 with the overthrow of the

[02:06] Sha uh and the arrival in Iran of Homini

[02:11] and of a clerical regime that really is

[02:14] foreign to the Shiite tradition which

[02:16] had been dominant in Iran and in various

[02:18] other places before that time. Ever

[02:21] since that time, starting with the

[02:23] seizure of the uh people from the

[02:26] American embassy as hostages, there has

[02:29] been a low-level war going on between

[02:32] Iran,

[02:34] the Sunni neighbors of Iran,

[02:38] the United States,

[02:40] and Israel.

[02:42] And uh every so often this thing

[02:46] explodes in into something larger. And

[02:49] that's what the so-called 12-day war was

[02:52] about. Uh, one of the key elements to

[02:55] this was that the Iranians were seeking

[02:57] nuclear weapons and had the means to

[03:00] produce them in short order. And just

[03:05] having that capacity gave them leverage

[03:08] and they sponsored proxies.

[03:11] uh the Houthis in Yemen, uh Hezbollah in

[03:15] Lebanon, uh and Hamas in Gaza. Uh and

[03:20] this is all for the purpose of

[03:23] overcoming the Sunni world. Uh the the

[03:27] Israelis and the United States are seen

[03:29] as obstacles to that. We stand in the

[03:32] way and we do indeed stand in the way.

[03:35] And you can see the manner in which in

[03:37] recent years the Sunni world has lined

[03:39] up with the Israelis settling all sorts

[03:42] of questions uh providing uh

[03:45] ambassadorial

[03:47] rec diplomatic recognition and so forth

[03:50] and that's because they're afraid of the

[03:52] Iranians. So there is a split within

[03:55] Islam between Sunni and Shiite

[03:59] that is every bit as important as the

[04:02] division between Catholic and Protestant

[04:04] in say the 16th and 17th centuries. Uh

[04:09] it's a source of bloodshed. It's a

[04:11] source of struggle. Honor is involved.

[04:14] Uh and the Iranians have been uh very

[04:17] effective in this. uh we've helped fund

[04:20] it uh under Obama. We made a deal with

[04:24] them that they would uh put their

[04:26] nuclear program on hold and we would

[04:29] provide them with a great deal of money

[04:31] which then has been spent uh in

[04:33] attacking us and in attacking the

[04:36] Israelis. So there's there's a large

[04:38] struggle that's been going on for a long

[04:40] time. Um, it may be over now, but I I'm

[04:45] not too terribly confident of that. As

[04:48] long as that regime stays in power, uh,

[04:51] they're likely to pursue this. If you

[04:54] see Ham,

[04:56] uh, who is the leader there being pushed

[04:58] aside, he's an old man, he's 86, and

[05:01] other people coming to the four, there

[05:04] may be a deal worked out that has some

[05:07] legs to it. Otherwise, not. I I don't

[05:11] know if you noticed but today Hamina

[05:13] appeared and declared victory in this

[05:15] war uh despite all the damage that has

[05:18] been done to their nuclear program to

[05:20] their military and so forth. Um so who

[05:24] knows in that regard. Uh there is a

[05:27] larger context for this and hidden in

[05:30] the background is the fact that there is

[05:32] a kind of rivalry between Turkey which

[05:36] in the Ottoman period was the great

[05:38] rival of Iran uh and the Iranians. So

[05:42] you have a Sunni power in Turkey that is

[05:44] formidable and allied with us at least

[05:47] nominally. And then you have the

[05:49] Iranians that has not burst out into um

[05:54] into violence. But you could see that it

[05:57] was going on in Syria in which the

[06:01] current regime in Syria was being

[06:03] sponsored. Those people were being

[06:04] sponsored by the Turks. The Iranians

[06:07] were sponsoring the Alawite regime of

[06:11] the Assad family. Uh so there's

[06:13] maneuvering that that goes on sort of

[06:16] constantly in that region.

[06:18] Uh, and we're drawn into it because it's

[06:22] a source of oil for our allies in Europe

[06:25] and of course Japan. Uh, the an awful

[06:28] lot of oil moves through the straits of

[06:31] Hormuz uh down through the Persian Gulf.

[06:35] Uh, it comes from Iran, it comes from

[06:39] Iraq, it comes from Saudi Arabia, and it

[06:42] comes from other countries in that in

[06:44] that particular region. But it's of

[06:45] strategic importance because our allies

[06:49] are dependent on that. For a time, we

[06:51] were dependent on it too until we began

[06:54] to um uh frack uh and we're now an

[06:58] exporter of oil, although not on a on a

[07:00] huge level. Um the other thing is uh

[07:04] this is tied into the larger world. uh

[07:08] you know the things that we do or don't

[07:12] do have an impact on the calculation of

[07:15] people elsewhere.

[07:17] Uh to go back a little ways uh when

[07:20] Obama was president uh he declared a red

[07:23] line in Syria and then they broke the

[07:26] red line and he did absolutely nothing.

[07:30] He then tried to suck up to the Iranian

[07:33] regime showing weakness again. Uh, and

[07:37] it's not a very big surprise that in

[07:39] 2014 the Russians will move into Crimea

[07:43] and will move into eastern Ukraine. They

[07:47] figured they could get away with it and

[07:48] and they did. The followup to that is

[07:51] that the Chinese take the the the reefs

[07:55] in in the South China Sea and begin to

[07:57] militarize them, trying to turn the

[08:00] South China Sea into a Chinese lake. So

[08:04] if you show weakness,

[08:06] everybody's going to move against you uh

[08:09] in in ways they think they can get away

[08:12] with. If you show strength, it's just

[08:15] the opposite. So So for example, Yeah.

[08:18] No, for example, finish your thought,

[08:19] please. No, please, please, professor,

[08:21] finish your thought. Well,

[08:23] uh,

[08:25] I don't believe that, um, Putin would

[08:28] have gone into Ukraine in 2014,

[08:32] uh, excuse me, in 2022,

[08:35] uh, if, uh, Donald Trump had been

[08:38] president.

[08:39] And the reason is when uh Solmani who

[08:44] was head of the revolutionary guard in

[08:46] Iran instructed the militias that they

[08:50] sponsor in Iraq to attack the American

[08:53] base with missiles. We assassinated him.

[08:56] Trump ordered it. Boom. Uh I'm not the

[08:59] only one who thinks this. I sat at a

[09:02] dinner three years ago with a uh

[09:04] columnist of the New York Times who

[09:06] shall remain nameless, but she has red

[09:09] hair. Uh a New York Times speaker was

[09:12] speaking about Ukraine.

[09:15] She got up and she asked him if he

[09:18] thought that uh had Trump been

[09:20] president, Putin would have gone into

[09:22] Ukraine. And the fellow then went into

[09:25] the Russian collusion nonsense. And I

[09:28] leaned over to her and I said,"You think

[09:30] otherwise, don't you?" And she shook her

[09:32] head. "Yes."

[09:34] And I said, "It's Nixon, isn't it?" And

[09:37] she says, "That's it. That's exactly

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[10:15] So, Dr. Ray, uh, what you're

[10:16] articulating is Shia supremacism where

[10:19] the Iranian regime has an ideological

[10:22] fervor to want to, uh, take over the

[10:25] entire region. What would you say is the

[10:27] status or the health of that regime?

[10:30] Can we tell? Please tell us, Dr. Ray.

[10:33] Well, we really can't tell. At least I

[10:36] really can't tell. U, we may have um

[10:40] intelligence agents there who know quite

[10:43] a bit. The CIA may know quite a bit. Uh

[10:46] I wouldn't be shocked at all if the

[10:48] Israelis know quite a bit. But um

[10:53] I don't think this is a good day for

[10:55] that political regime. A lot of damage

[10:58] has been done. They've shown weakness. I

[11:01] mean Hmeni may claim victory, but the

[11:05] whole world including all the people in

[11:06] Iran know that this was a grave defeat

[11:10] for uh Iran. uh and weakness in that

[11:14] part of the world in in Iran in in the

[11:18] Arab countries

[11:21] isn't tolerated for long. So I think

[11:24] it's possible that there will be a

[11:27] change within the regime or even a

[11:31] change of regime. Um one of the things

[11:35] to know about the Iranian regime is it's

[11:37] not a monarchy. It's not an ordinary

[11:40] tyranny. It's an oligarchy. There's a

[11:44] sort of group of insiders um including

[11:47] the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard

[11:49] and so forth, but also the people in

[11:51] Parliament uh and the Mullers. And you

[11:56] can bet that there are conversations

[11:58] going on now about what changes need to

[12:01] be made. And at a certain point, those

[12:04] changes could be serious.

[12:06] uh in in the year 2002

[12:09] after 911 uh I used to live in Turkey so

[12:12] I I know that part of the world a bit

[12:15] and I went back to Turkey seeing old

[12:18] friends but I was also invited to a um

[12:23] uh a party with Turkish journalists.

[12:26] There was an Iranian journalist there.

[12:29] There had been demonstrations in Iran,

[12:31] spontaneous demonstrations at soccer

[12:34] games. pro-american demonstrations in

[12:38] the wake of 9/11.

[12:40] So I asked this Iranian journalist,

[12:45] is is the regime going to go under? And

[12:48] he said no. He said, the people who run

[12:50] this country were graduate students in

[12:53] Eastern Europe during the Soviet period.

[12:57] They know how to control a population.

[13:01] There's one thing they don't know how to

[13:03] control. their own children.

[13:07] Uh I don't know if his story about

[13:10] Eastern Europe is correct, but I can

[13:13] tell you they have controlled that

[13:14] population.

[13:16] It's now 46 years old. At that time it

[13:18] was um

[13:20] younger.

[13:22] But one of the things you can see in

[13:26] these sorts of regimes is they run out

[13:29] of revolutionary fervor when the

[13:32] generation that made the revolution

[13:34] passes from the scene.

[13:37] Now it's a bit early. Those people are

[13:40] in their 60s now and in their 70s.

[13:44] They haven't passed from the scene, but

[13:47] it could be enough of them have passed

[13:49] from the scene and that there are people

[13:52] in positions of responsibility who are

[13:54] younger, the sort of Gorbachoffs

[13:57] of the um Iranian revolution. that is to

[14:01] say people who were not there during the

[14:03] revolution

[14:05] and they may think a little bit

[14:06] differently especially since

[14:09] uh the defeats they've suffered uh in

[14:13] Gaza in Lebanon in Yemen and now in the

[14:18] home country.

[14:20] So they might want to move away from a

[14:24] set of policies that brings this sort of

[14:27] thing on them.

[14:29] Now, if Hamina remains in power, 86

[14:32] years old, and if he dominates,

[14:35] I doubt that there will be change.

[14:39] But, but if he gets pushed aside,

[14:44] everything's open.

[14:46] And there's a very large population in

[14:48] Iran that has never liked this regime.

[14:51] And so, there might be an opening in

[14:53] that direction.

[14:55] If there was ever an opportunity for the

[14:58] people of Persia to rise up, I would

[14:59] imagine this would be it. They, at least

[15:02] from the outside, they seem remarkably

[15:04] vulnerable. And they're a proud people.

[15:06] They are an ancient power. And despite

[15:09] the spin that the Ayatollah is giving,

[15:11] they they were humiliated on the world

[15:13] stage. They had no air defense systems.

[15:14] I mean, two foreign countries had

[15:16] complete control of the skies over Iran.

[15:18] It was a joke. Dr. Ray, we're out of

[15:21] time. Thank you for your time. Final

[15:22] thoughts. 20 seconds, sir.

[15:24] Okay, the Russians and the Chinese are

[15:27] watching and they're beginning to think

[15:31] maybe we should be a little bit careful.

[15:33] Well said. Be a little bit care. Donald

[15:36] Trump did not just bop drop a bomb on

[15:38] Fordo. It was a memo of understanding to

[15:41] our enemies that was delivered straight

[15:44] to the desk straight to the desk of Xiin

[15:46] Ping and Vladimir Putin and they took

[15:48] careful notes at the military precision

[15:50] and the willingness of the

[15:51] commander-in-chief. Dr. Ray, thank you

[15:52] so much.