Tucker Carlson Interviews Steve Sailer on Black Lives Matter Deaths Data and the Floyd Effect

so you're saying you think that was a the sackers and the Mexican drug cartels targeted rural whites Appalachian whites for example on purpose because they knew that nobody would care when they died yeah the New York Times has put in a lot of effort in recent years explaining the racist sexist slur of Karen as this anti-white woman slur to their their millions of subscribers so that they know just the right time to use it and they and they make sure not to use it on any on any nonwhite Karen my impression is that most of the readership of the New York Times is Karen yeah I I would think what I mean by that is like screechy fragile Barren NPR listing middle-aged lawyers and 39% more blacks died in car crashes in 2021 than in 201 car crashes yeah did Trump read my 2000 article nah but what else was he going to do that was that was the one path to the presidency will it work this [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Music] [Applause] [Music] time so I got to say it it's a little weird to be sitting in Cross from you in my barn you're I was thinking this morning you're you're almost like Matt drudge used to be you know everyone read the Drudge Report starting in the '90s um but no one wanted to admit it in the news business but everybody read it but drudge himself was this mysterious figure actually knew him sort of I've never met you everybody I know on both sides has read you for years you're not crazy you're not a bigot but somehow you became a sort of mysterious Outlaw figure that no one was allowed to meet or talk to is it weird out in public uh yeah it actually is I uh you know for 10 years from 2013 into 2023 you basically couldn't go see Steve sailor give a speech anywhere uh you know I was I was being signed up for conferences my the last speech I gave in 2013 was an analysis of the Obama versus Romney exit polls didn't seem that controversial to me but for the next decade every time uh I'd be invited to a conference and about six weeks later I'd get an email go well it turned out the splc or Media Matters went to the hotel and said that this is just deplorable and you might find also that the local antia the Black Block guys uh were thinking about protesting and you know how that can turn into violence and so forth so they canceled their contract so you know the I just kept writing uh but all sudden the ice started to break up maybe last year and this year I've been doing traveling around the country and meeting people who've been reading me for years or just started reading me it's it's a lot of fun I I appreciate it it's just funny though because you know in a world where there are some wackos and there are people who Advocate violence you would seem to be maybe the last person who would scare people I mean you're effectively an informal academic or social scientist you're a numbers guy yeah I'm kind of like Bill James the baseball statistics analyst for uh the social sciences in the US I've like for three years now I've been raising a stink about all right what was the impact of black lives matter on black lives and as far as I can tell got black lives matter during their two eras of Triumph after Ferguson in 20156 and then the big one during the Floyd effect the racial Reckoning of the 2020s they've gotten an incremental 15 to 20,000 extra black lives murdered through homic Inc incremental homicides versus the baseline or just splattered on the pavement through increased traffic fatalities but so all killed by white cops no uh the vast majority of black shooting deaths is at the hands of other blacks there was a for example in 2020 there was just an enormous explosion in mass shootings with at least four dead or wounded at black social events um this is you know we we we talk about mass shootings a lot but as the New York Times did a big study in 200 16 and concluded that almost 75% of the mass shootings with at least four victims uh wounded or killed uh take place in Black onblack uh events typically Saturday night at the club or a funeral uh some of some of them are organized crime very strategic like in the TV show The Wire but a lot is just one guy diss is another guy and people pull out guns and start shooting and yet that's very little interest to the Democratic establishment the Need For What I Call point of use gun control the the Democrats tend to obsess over the need for point of sun of saale gun control to keep rednecks out in the country from buying rifles legally buying rifles at Walmart Walmart and in truth what we've seen it's like in the 1990s into the 2010s in New York City where people like Giuliani Bloomberg and Braden did a great job of Bringing Down the murder rate what really works is point of use gun control you discourage low lives from packing their illegal handguns when they go out because they're more worried about the cops and getting caught uh carrying an illegal piece so they leave it up in their grandmother's uh uh attic stuffed away and the fewer people who are carrying guns on the streets in in New York City the less often they pull them out and start shooting and you get this virtuous cycle but you know nobody understands that so in in during the Great awokening the last decade and especially during the the what was called what used to be called the racial Reckoning before the whole George Floyd thing has pretty much gotten memory hold lately uh just huge increases in Black deaths by murder and by car crash okay so can we back up you said a bunch of different things I want to follow up um but let's just start at the very beginning you said the George Floyd thing has been effectively memory hold yeah what was the you know it's been almost exactly four years since that happened yeah Memorial Day 2020 with that the benefit of you know some time to think about it what was that what what was it um to to a large extent it it didn't happen or the the follow on events such as uh a huge increase in the murder rate uh especially among blacks uh the murder rate was 44% more blacks were killed uh by homicide in 2021 and 2019 the year before and 39% more blacks died in car crashes in 2021 than in 20 car crashes yeah it all ties together because when the establishment as they did after George Floyd's death said okay here's the biggest problem in America even bigger than Co for the moment is that we impose too much Law and Order on African-Americans we are pulling them over for Ticky Tac things like speeding and not having registration on their car and just driving badly and then we're we're checking for outstanding criminal warrants and maybe searching for illegal handguns this is all incredibly disc incriminatory so the cops went oh okay you don't want us to do that all right we we'll be in the dut shop and so the the number of traffic stops dropped way down so people started driving worse the drive drove faster and they started carrying illegal handguns more and and the number of shootings the number of homicides just went through the roof uh just immediately I can show week by week data uh from the Center for Disease Control that's pretty astonishing beginning with George Floyd's death in the r yes I mean the the uh the all-time most murderous day in the storied history of Chicago's murder uh narrative you know going back blowing away the St Valentine's Day Massacre by Al Capone and all that was May 31st 2020 six days after George Floyd's death when 18 Chicagoans were murdered that day why pretty much because the cops went down to the Magnificent Mile to keep it from being torched and looted and the word quickly got around that you can do anything you want in the neighborhood and nobody's going to going to notice and so all sorts of Vengeance was just taken on you know on random people out there for know for personal reasons and then it just went on and on for several more years fortunately last year or so the murder rate started finally to come down you don't think there's any and you have the numbers right can we can we see them yeah you don't think there's any question that this was related yeah to the Floyd story to the Floyd events let's take a look let's take a look at the cdc's data uh weekly all right this is the Center for Disease Control collects data weekly on all the deaths in the United States you can ask for any one particular thing so uh this is weeks from 2018 into uh 2023 uh the Blue Line indicates the beginning of covid lockdowns the black line is George Floyd's death all right the red line is the number of African-Americans who died by homicide that week so it's bouncing around it has some seasonality in 2018 2019 George Floyd dies and suddenly boom it goes to this enormous Peak and then just slowly Fades over the next uh four four years into 202 it's immediate it's the second George Floyd od's people start shooting each other yeah about probably probably the by the Friday after he died on Memorial Day on Monday it just you know there was just a giant Cultural Revolution and basically people lost fear of the cops because everybody The Establishment the media the politicians were telling the America that we have too much policing and too much Law and Order and so we got a lot more murder uh it's kind of ironic because the name of the movement was black lives matter and it wound up getting an enormous number of black lives uh murdered incremental versus what you see in 2018 that's not even a call I mean that is absolutely yeah this is one of the biggest findings in the American social sciences uh probably since uh Angus deedon and cas's finding in 2015 of deaths of Despair and how the white working classes life expectancy was dropping in the early 21st century uh the other but the big part of it is that oh it also applies to motor vehicle accident deaths so you could see this pretty consistent level um African-Americans have have traditionally been not bad drivers uh they don't have the kind of problem with driving traditionally the way they had with homicide but boom a new Plateau that's endured ever since and to to put this in a longer term historical perspective let me uh let me find uh graphs of the CDC data monthly going back to 1999 through 20 uh 21 uh these are homicide death as opposed to murders perpetrated so these These are the races of victims and blacks Hispanics whites and blue uh you can see 9 you can see 911 there that's what it is 3,000 Americans die by homicide at the hands of of al-Qaeda okay and then most years you've got yeah you've got more people get murdered in summer than in Winter they're out partying and so forth but it's pretty consistent you can see an increase over here in the the the Ferguson effect after black lives matter emerges in 2014 uh which was a pretty decent year and then all of a sudden uh murders go up dramatically in 20156 that helps get Trump elected you might remember how black lives matter terrorists were assassin fascinating cops in Dallas and Baton Rouge and so forth uh although that's really been memory hold uh anyway Jeff sessions came in kind of told the police departments no you know we're not going to persecute you for taking for doing your jobs all right then Trump got rid of sessions maybe murder started going up a little more and then comes 2020 and the um and the George Floyd racial Reckoning it's just enormous increase compared to anything else in the 21st century now one reason we don't hear about this is because these graphs are kind of embarrassing because the black line of homicide death rate is so much higher than than the um the light brown Hispanic line there Hispanics actually in the 21st century have done a pretty good job of lowering their H their rate of being murdered uh and finally though when the racial Reckoning came along it got worse again so we' losing a bunch of that progress the blue line is the white line down there it's an order of magnitude below the black line and it's considered really bad taste to notice um you know differences in the homicide rate uh the other thing I'm but I point out is motor vehicle deaths motor vehicle deaths per capita this isn't per mile driven uh weren't too bad weren't they didn't have big racial differences in the past whites the whites and the blue line often had the worst blacks weren't bad Hispanics weren't good but then after 2008 Hispanics actually got better and the brown Hispanic line is doing pretty good until the racial Reckoning but you can see the black line just went through the roof again compared to the rest of the 21st Cent Cy so what's happened is during the Great awokening during the era of black lives matter what we see is that deaths two different kinds of deaths homicides and car crashes what I call deaths of exuberance in contrast to Case and deon's deaths of Despair uh seem to be have gotten highly correlated when black lives matter is winning uh people do people especially black Americans die more deaths of exuberance until black lives matter goes out of fashion again and the cops are allowed to like pull over bad drivers and check for illegal handguns uh so does anybody know that now it's it's hardly caught on at all I mean part of the problem is because I discovered in 2021 then if you're a social scientist you want to write a paper for an academic Journal it's kind of like either well well either I cite Steve sailor but I might get cancelled for citing this horrible crime thinker or I don't cite him and then his followers on Twitter all get real mad at me for not citing him uh here's my view just go ahead don't site me just get the word out there it's it's more important that America know about how badly it's screwed up how many tens of thousands of incremental Americans have died because America America's Elites get infatuated with black lives matter now and then than it is for me to get publicity about it why do the bad people have so much power cuz the bad people have all the money where' they got all the money you gave it to them by using their businesses businesses that undermine this country and Empower countries that don't seek the best for your family trust us but there is an alternative it's called Public Square Public Square is a n work of over 75,000 independent businesses small businesses in this country from which you can buy guns and ammo fresh food household goods things you need to live and when you buy them you can feel certain that you are not doing a bad deed you are doing a good deed that will make this a better and more independent country and make your kids' future brighter public square.com we are honored we are proud to have them as a sponsor of this show these numbers are pretty striking when you see them graft out like this but they comport with what you notice yeah already I mean you sorted knew that you know when you have riots people die and a lot of people who died were black not all however um but it was pretty obvious from day one that black lives matter wasn't helping anybody including and maybe especially black people so like what would be the motive what's the motive there were a lot of motives uh for black lives matter one one was that America had gotten better uh after the 1990s after the crack Wars at policing uh that uh the drugs that were driving crime were not particularly marketed to Inner City blacks the opioids the oxycodone and so forth even the when the uh Mexican started selling uh black tar heroin they also focused like the Sackler family on like you know who are a bunch of people if they drop dead nobody's going to care and that's like a white people in small towns in Kentucky that kind of stuff so you had these de had this big rise in deaths of Despair wait do so you're saying you think that was a the sackers and the Mexican drug cartels morally equivalent I would say or close um targeted rural whites Appalachian whites for example on purpose because they knew that nobody would care when they died I mean it's it's the theory of a good reporter Named Sam Quin Quinones who's written a couple books on the evolution of the drug trade in this Century uh that the Mexican cartels had a strategy that no we we don't want to sell to particularly shooty people near Media capitals we'll sell to people who will overdose and quiet in small towns in the Ohio River Valley that nobody's going to Care much about and so I mean nobody paid any attention to this increase in the white workingclass death rate until just fortuitously in 2015 Angus Deon was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics and a couple weeks later he and his wife published this important paper saying you know if you look at the CDC data uh life expectancy for white workingclass people without you know without college degrees has been dropping in the 21st century and it's not supposed to happen and it seems to be overdoses on painkillers it seems to be suicide it seems to be alcoholism just deaths of despair seven years into Obama yeah yeah 15 years into the into when it started around 2000 when the the Sackler families Purdue Pharmaceuticals started their big push for uh opioid prescriptions but how would no one notice this I wonder you know there's no organizations dedicated to to the welfare of white workingclass people so the fact that they're dying in great numbers of novel causes it basically relied on two academics and who said wow this is interesting and one of them happened to win the Nobel Prize just before their paper came out so people paid attention to their paper because oh yeah I heard about Angus Deon and the Nobel and the Nobel Prize last month well that's kind of if I just ask you it's I think you're right but it's sort of interesting if you think about it there are no organizations dedicated to the welfare of rural whites yeah but there are a lot of organizations dedicated to the welfare of a million other groups that are much smaller in number yeah um so why aren't there any organizations dedicated to that you know a few people have tried to set up organizations that speak for white people uh the way that Al Sharpton speaks for black people and countless other organizations speak for Jewish people or Latinos and so forth and are highly respectable and are constantly quoted in the newspaper you know a bright very gentlemanly fellow named Jared Taylor tried to do this for the last 30 years and you know he's still banned on Twitter at this point uh you know it's uh America has a phobia about anybody speaking up for the emerging white minority um everybody you know the conventional wisdom is that whites are rapidly being turned into a minority and that's a good thing and uh but we're not going to treat ever treat whites like the minority that they're becoming in in multiple States across the country we're going to treat them as the all powerful omnipotent Legacy majority who can be blamed for everything from now on but that's I I certainly UHS see that well I think it's absolutely right but if their life expectancy is declining faster than anyone else's and they are dying then I mean it it does seem a little odd to lie about that it I mean what's the intent there it's it's nobody lied so much as they just wondered why are you interested in this what kind of sinister reason do you have for worrying about the 100 million workingclass white people in the country who are generating these not new problems and dropping dead from them and you know putting out the alarm about it is uh is just considered some sort of white supremacy IST white nationalist uh you know dog whistle that you know will lead to slavery and the Holocaust and all sorts of imaginings um and you know the the other half of the white population wasn't suffering um you know they they weren't you know the kind of people who don't have a bad back because they don't lift heavy things on the on the job you know they're not hooked on oxycodone or or when prescriptions got tightened up they didn't go over to Mexican heroin and and then to fenel and so forth so uh you know who cares uh we're just talking about deplorables here but okay I mean I get you know everyone has preferences and a lot of people um in Washington New York and La don't like the voting patterns of the population you're describing but they are human beings and Americans and if they're going extinct um or they're dying in huge numbers in any any case uh to ignore that or downplay it is is evil isn't it yeah I mean they to to my view they are our fellow American citizens as are African-Americans and so the fact that black lives matter in this ironic complete self-destructiveness brought about just historic changes in the number of black lives dying in kind of the opposite of the de the working white workingclass deaths of exuberance that you could see it in the Ferguson effect in 20156 and now in the huge Floyd effect of the 2020s I mean we're talking uh something like an incremental 15 to 20,000 more blacks have died in those in car crashes and murders then if the Baseline of a few years ago had been maintained and that's that's just enormous that's that's easily the black death rate death total in Vietnam maybe Vietnam and Korea put together uh and people should be talking about that too because African-Americans are our fellow American citizens and we ought to be like keeping an eye on them and not refraining from noticing just because it's embarrassing just because who's it embarrassing to the elites the convent the prop Pounders of the conventional wisdom uh the respectable Prestige press Academia uh the Democratic uh party and so forth that they they promoted all of this stuff uh they took black lives matter at face value and did very little investigation I mean basically you weren't anymore allowed to ask the question like okay blacks men tend to get shot by the police about two to three times as often as white men per capita that's that's that's a big difference but it's nowhere near as big a difference as uh blacks tend to get shot by each other about 10 times as much as whites get shot by each other and probably blacks get shot by non-p police whites you know dozens of times less often than they're shot by other blacks um you know black young black men in this country have an enormous homicide problem a gun homicide problem uh I looked up for young for males age 15 to 34 their death by gun homicide in 2022 and blacks young black men died about 50 not 15 but 50 times more per capita by gunfire than young Asian men 24 times more than young white men and six times more than Hispanics uh the hisp Hispanics are fairly comparable in poverty and education and so forth and but they don't have anywhere near the kind of gun problem that uh African-Americans have developed and I think but is anybody out there asking young African-Americans and telling them you know you if you guys could not get your homicide rate down to the Hispanic level if you could get it down halfway from where it is now to the Hispanic level this country would be so much better off and race relations would be so much better but you know you're not supposed to put crime statistics like that in the newspaper it's just considered you know racist to to mention all these government it's obviously not you know it's reality is not racist you know um by Def hope not right but again sorry to keep asking variations of the same question but what would be the motive in trying to hide something like that all right I my theory is that it it goes back to the Grand strategy of the democratic party which uh is enthusiastically assisted by other forms of the establishment such as the The Prestige press uh Academia much much of the corporate world as well the the Democrats have realized over the last few decades that they could be that America is becoming more diverse uh immigration is driving diversity uh patterns of interracial marriage make more people who are have some claim to be nonwhite um also there's the constant generation of new identities such as in in the last decade trans genderism um so as America becomes more diverse the Democratic party can profit by being the party of diversity the party of the diverse the party of people from the fringes of American society the party of people that the Democrats would call the marginalized from the margins of American society so you're talking about immigrants you're talking about uh black church ladies trans transgenders uh uh Jews Muslims etc etc now the one problem with all this is that while it's it works pretty well on paper and the Democrats have managed to win the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections uh the problem is keeping this Coalition of the fringes the marginalized from turning on each other from becoming a circular firing squad and because a lot of the components have very little incommon yeah as we're seeing with Jews and Muslims right now it's you know these people do not like each other do the black church ladies who were the steadfast Democrats do they do they really get along that well with the gays much less with the transgenders nah do the his do the Asian immigrants have much in common with uh with Hispanic immigrants nah not really uh it can go on and on it it's it's inherent in the Democrats Grand strategy to be the party of of diversity the party of the fringes of American society so uh how can they unite their Coalition of the margins and the one strategy the Democrats have come up with is basically to Foster uh racist animous against core Americans people who uh you know basically are demographically somewhat like George Washington Ben Franklin John Adams you know that are that are white that are men that are straight maybe they own homes maybe they're married they have kids kids um so the and to make them the bad guys in the American narrative and that's the only thing the Democrats and their colleagues in Academia Etc can think of to hold together this diverse Coalition so we've seen this enormous increase in um in just racist bigotry being expressed in you know the pages of the New York Times in this Century things that in the past would have been considered rather in poor taste and extremist so the New York Times will you know has put in a lot of effort in recent years explaining the racist sexist slur of Karen as this anti-white woman uh racist uh slur to their their millions of subscribers so that they know just the right time to use it and they then they make sure not to use it on any on any non-white Caren and so forth uh you you recently had on can I ask my impression is that most of the readership of the New York Times is Karen's yeah I I would think what I mean by that is like screechy fragile Barren NPR listing middle-aged lawyers yeah that's in the modal subscriber perhaps and yeah the you know the New York Times is not the failing New York Times anymore it's they've done a very good job of identifying people who will pay to subscribe to have their worldview Vindicated over and over again and and kind of for the times to bury inconvenient facts that don't support their view of the world you know in the 27th paragraph or something like that um so yeah you recently had on Jeremy Carl he's got a new book The unprotected class that documents a great length just this trend toward ever more uh anti-white racism in the respectable press and in media and the Democratic speeches and so forth and you know I it's finally starting to to to backfire on Democrats people are starting to notice just just how much awful stuff is said about kind of the core Americans that tend to vote Republican so I don't know what I mean have you have you been seeing this just over the last 10 years just huge increases and and putting down white people have I noticed it it's the one of the defining facts of American society and it's and it's always perpetrated by people who are simultaneously in the same sentence giving you a lecture about racism yes shut up white man you're evil for being white and racist huh it's like TR there's so many like the contradictions in that sentence are are so inherent that um it's hard to believe anyone could utter it but no of course I noticed that and I guess what I'm really struck by and I don't know the answer is why people put up with it so at that point it's like well you know like if you're attacking my children for their skin color then I get my gun right but nobody does get his gun they just sort of sit there and okay can't say anything like what I don't the why would anyone ever put up with that I mean I mean why why' Americans go out of their way not to to just go oh yes I hear what you're saying about how the evils of whiteness and and my children are children of whiteness and they have oppressed the world and I've actually thought about that and while that may sound like just low brow racist bigotry on your part it actually has a really impressive intellectual Heritage going back to the Frankfurt School and Graham she and updated by you know in the critical race Theory by marusa and people will go on and on about uh you know what what you're saying isn't as moronic as it sounds and hate filled bigotry it's it's actually you're getting this and it all goes back to Marxism or or Fuko or something like that um so yeah Republicans White have been reluctant to to call out just anti-white racism for what it is well why is I mean clearly something we're broken inside right I mean like why would you put up with an attack that's you know inherently unreasonable right you don't choose your race therefore you probably shouldn't attack someone on the basis of his race it's totally anti-American as defined by consensus over the last 60 years that's one thing we're not allowed to do do and yet it's done at greater scale now than during the Jim Crow period so like why would you even consider putting up with that there must be something wrong with you like you hate yourself obviously yeah Republicans they Republicans like uh other other races and good for them and uh and yeah they want they want to blame the tendency that's been growing especially in the black lives matter era of the last decade to just say the most bigoted things they they want to blame it on something old like Marxism this isn't what uh African-Americans want to say you know the my son's I my son's friends on his high school football team they're not they're not bigoted racists and the truth is yeah a lot of them aren't I mean a lot a lot of this stuff is coming out of colleges and so forth it's it's kind of soft deegree majors and so on but you know taking taking claims to have some deep intellectual Heritage is naive it's just it's just people with soft Majors who got Dei syic cures and so forth and corporations and colleges you know just expressing their their basic prejudices their basic bigotry and you know we should be laughing at it we shouldn't be taking it that seriously we should be satzinger across you may have come to the obvious conclusion that the real debate is not between Republican and Democrat or socialist and capitalist right left the real battle is between people who are lying on purpose and people who are trying to tell you the truth it's between good and evil it's between honesty and falsehood and we hope we are on the former side that's why we created this network the Tucker Carlson Network and we invite you to subscribe to it go to tuckercarlson.com podcast our entire archive is there a lot of behind the-scenes footage of what actually happens in this Barn uh when only an iPhone phone is running Tucker carlson.com podcast you will not regret it so can I ask you I think a lot of people assume that when whites who obviously founded the country become a minority in the country their ancestors founded that it'll stop no um whites will be the Legacy majority I mean I'll give you an example uh in 1955 a 14-year-old black black child named EMT till was was murdered for making pretty uh aggressive pass toward a white woman in in the South all right married white woman in a store yeah in a store and then uh that was a big story at the time and helped lead to the Civil Rights era of the 1960s and then it sort of faded from the newspapers the New York Times mentioned EMT Till's name twice in 2 in 1980 in 2000 they were up to mentioning him four times by I think 2018 they were mentioning him something like one and a half times a week about a about as often as Chief Justice John Roberts name in The New York Times it just became this huge breaking news story and they that you know I joke that they had a you know a jet at LaGuardia fueled up always ready to fly to anywhere to report on the latest emit till news all right this kind of antiquarianism is increasing because I mean the truth for liberals is the Liberals have been pretty much in charge of most things uh involving race for since the 1960s and they haven't really accomplished that much so they kind of want to hide their record and focus people on preil rights uh antiqui such as emit till or you constantly hear these days about uh FDR's redlining of FHA Loans in 1938 as the reason that black neighborhoods tend to have lower property values than uh White neighbor hoods or Latino or Asian neighborhoods and you know couldn't have anything to do with current crime rates it couldn't have anything to do with uh with discipline in the local schools it's got to do with the nefarious plot of FDR uh you know in in almost 90 years ago and why does no one so off you know the all these Southern cities are famous in American culture for their Association you know the Edmund Pettis Bridge Selma Alabama um the you know the trial in Wilmington oh you know there's like these moments in the Civil Rights era that people are still as you pointed out talking about Philadelphia Mississippi why does no one ever go back to those places those physical places and find out how they're doing yeah um Birmingham not doing that well uh Selma not doing that well um yeah it's uh yeah what then ends up is you then have you end up getting a long lecture about how the construction of a freeway in 1958 destroyed the booming Black Wall Street of Birmingham or whatever and all sorts of things like that there's a large number of preann excuses um but is there any effort to actually improve the lives of black people that you're aware of I mean what what does improve the lives of black people uh basically having some Law and Order keeping people from carrying guns on the street uh that's probably done quite a bit of good um basically uh the part the parts of the country that are run by Republicans tend to have somewhat better performing uh blacks Stu students in schools and so forth for example uh Frisco texus a fast growing egg zerb of Dallas has the smallest test score gap of any school district in the country that has the highest it's about 11% black and 20% Hispanic and it has the highest Black and Hispanic test scores in the United States really and the the smallest white black G in the country and you know other places the great liberal cities like San Francisco and uh Madison Wisconsin uh tend to have bigger bigger U gaps uh not just because they have a lot of smart white people living there but they do a lousier job in San Francisco of educating blacks uh because you know it's such a liberal Progressive environment that they do a poor job of doing things like having well-disciplined schools and focusing on Basics and so forth um so yeah there's a general I mean there's been a general Trend toward blacks who have some have some choices in life who are looking to get ahead looking to do good things for their their kids to be moving to the South to Texas to Red States and so forth where you know they can um and away from the highly liberal parts of the country it's it's not a Panacea but yeah it does some good at the at the margin do where are we on the Continuum in other words if the graphs that you showed the four years after the Floyd verdict or Floyd death uh like if you extended those if you doubled them what would they look like where where are we now um we're we're hopefully past the worst of the racial Reckoning what I've what I've noticed in the newspapers was that the front section around a few months before the 2022 election seemed to get the word from maybe the Biden White House that like you know this whole George Floyd racial Reckoning thing that's not going to be a big vote winner in the 2022 midterms uh especially in the in the New York City area um so let's let's go easy on it let's not talk about it all the time maybe it wasn't such a good idea what and then it just sort of disappeared from the serious news part of the paper in the cultural section in the back you you know they never got the memo so there's constantly discussions about how Okay uh in a great Leap Forward for Equity at the Art Institute of Chicago they fired all the nice white lady dosant who work for free giving tours of the great artwork so they can hire uh people of color to to and pay them to work there and stuff like that and you kept hearing all those kind of stories going on much longer about the wonders of the racial Reckoning because you know they hadn't gotten the message uh but yeah probably the Biden Administration uh engaging in benign neglect about like yeah let's not uh persecute police departments quite as hard as we were is probably done some good about getting the cops out of the doughnut shop and actually pulling over you know people driving 100 miles an hour U and so yeah that's that's made some progress but it took the it took the Hispanics a while longer to get the get the word that the cops weren't being proactive and so their car crash and murder rates have gone way up and you know it's even if things are getting better now they're going to take a number of years to get back to where we were in 2019 much less where we were before Ferguson in 2014 you know the the death rate is still up like in these deaths of exuberance like 30 to 40% over 2014 and and way up over the you know non-black average so the you know the obvious question is like why and this been going on a long time has there ever been a serious effort made in good faith to figure out why rates of violence among in Black areas are so much higher which they are and have always been but why yeah people people have been studying being it for the longest time uh you know Time Magazine ran an article in the late 50s about the the biggest worry of Big City Mayors is the growing problem of black crime uh you know at this point cities have done you know we we went through a bunch of phases we liberalized the country in the 60s in the Warren Court year we cut uh the imprisonment times and so forth and that that wound up doubling the per capita uh murder rate in the 60s and 70s it doubled yeah it was by 1980 it was twice what it was in 1961 per capita that's a lot of dead people yeah that's a lot of dead people and did did Horrors to American urban life people fled to this suburbs they're they're all now denounced as these villains who engaged in white flight but you know like my my wife's family lived in the in the Austin neighborhood in the west side of Chicago and they they when it started to integrate they joined a a liberal Catholic group and said okay we're all going to stick it out and not and make integration work and we're not going to flee to the suburbs and my in-law stuck stuck it out three years longer than the rest of the members of the club did but by that point the number of felonies against their children was piling up and so they finally sold out at a loss of like half of what they could have gotten for their house that they'd sold it three years before uh tens of millions of did that change their views what a tragedy for them yeah that they you know my my late father-in-law was the tuba player for the Chicago lyric Opera so so he ended up buying a farm 63 miles out of town and then commuting to work to play the tuba uh in the Opera House downtown um yeah it was kind of a disaster for them and you know there's tens of millions of Americans who are still alive who can tell these stories uh of what actually happened and the media is not that interested in hearing them you know the media wants to portray these people as the bad guys who because of their bigotry and not because of all the felonies against their children you know moved out to the suburbs uh interestingly right across the street from where my in-laws lived is the uh Municipality of Oak Park Illinois suburb that Ernest Hemingway supposedly said was the land of broad Lawns and narrow mines but it's really nice has all this great Frank lyd Wright architecture they actually did something really intelligent and really illegal in the 1970s which was they put a racial quota on real estate agents it was called the black a block club and said no you can't make a huge fast windfall by terrifying everybody into selling right now and because it's the whole block is going to tip black you're we're going to do this in an orderly fashion and we're going to use a racial quot and it worked it kept uh Oak Park from from going all black the way the Austin neighborhood next door has gone and Austin just is Bleak it's kind of post-apocalyptic looking now and and Oak Park looks kind of like this gay Utopia for for older gay couples who like fixing up beautiful Frank lyd wri houses uh so you know liberals did some things to protect themselves but they just didn't tell anybody about it uh so was anyone ever held responsible for any of this you know if you if you read the Press uh yeah there's been huge condemnation for of all the all the uh white families that fled crime as that they're engaging in white flight and if their grandchildren move back to the city because the crime has come down a little then then they're engaging in the great crime of gentrification you know it's it's kind of can't win can't you know either way you lose um you know there there's all sorts of talk uh uh you know mayor Pete in the transportation Department's always denouncing racist roads that building highways was destroying black neighborhoods and so forth um you know we we've Rewritten the past over and over again uh so we don't learn anything from it because we just we just specify a few important uh a few things that fit this narrative that everybody has now um so you know we'll see I mean the the obvious goal is what they call Equity and the term Equity is is one of those where it's it's not a secret what the Dei people want when they specify Equity what they're talking about when they're talking about equity and generational wealth and so forth is they want your equity in your home and they want to tax it away and take it for as reparations and spend it on themselves and that's that's kind of the uh the bottom line whether that'll get carried out I don't know we've we've seen reparation programs start to put out checks and super liberal places like Evanston Illinois uh even in California the idea of handing out huge checks to black people for the the horrors of living in California um didn't go that well uh we have to too large a Hispanic population to pull that off but can I ask how exactly would um the Dei Community steal the equity out of your home um well I mean one one start has been to reopen ancient history uh uh what do you call it when the government condemns your property and sells and buys it for what it thinks it's worth um we've we've seen cases eminent domain yeah eminent domain cases from a century ago we saw uh so if you if if you're black and you happen to have a family legend that we used to own this really nice piece of property but then it got eminently domained to make into a park that that was racist and we should get that property back so uh the descendants of a black family in Manhattan be Beach recently who uh Manhattan Beach had had uh condemned their property and a few other and some white neighbors of theirs to build a park and they recently got the city council to decare that that was racist in 1928 and that if it wasn't for this they no doubt would have held on to the property through the depression through everything that's happened ever since they would they would have scrimped and saved to hold on to that land next to the beach which is now worth $20 million so they got a check for $20 million uh for that um you you'll see you know this is a general Trend that's that's speeding up as uh uh you know plaintiff's attorneys are looking for these old cases and you know it's not like they can relitigate the case because there's nobody alive that REM that can testify or anything like that um so there'll be there'll be lots of attempts like that to you know basically hand out large amounts of money and um maybe maybe it won't be called reparations but uh but you'll see this and it's it's definitely been increasing in the 2020s but doesn't demographic change through be driven by immigration yeah scramble the formula a little bit yeah so you're I'm 55 you're older than I am by a bit but we both grew up in a country where you know it was white majority black minority and with some were from California both of us so there was always a Hispanic component but um but I think most Americans sort of thought of it as a white country with a black minority a mistreated black minority and some cases that was true but that's not the country that we're in right now and it definitely is not the country we're going to be in in 10 years which is going to have a Hispanic majority a white minority and then a much much much smaller black minority so I just wonder if the Hispanic majority is going to be that interested in EM till yeah I mean that's yeah that's definitely a possibility and and the The Establishment is working hard on that to to inculcate in the public schools that EMT till was the most important figure of the 20th century um they're they're working very hard to keep together the Democratic Coalition of the fringes by pointing at these horrible white men who were the enemy and who also have all the generational wealth and keep your eye on the prize eyes on the prize which is other people's money yeah other people's money it's it's white people's home equity basic basically in stocks of you know baby boomers are dying uh they're leaving their they want to leave their property to their kids this is a vast turnover wealth we need to get our our hands on some of this um another question might be you know how how big is the African immigration G to going to be if you go to look at the border there's all sorts of people showing up from morania from all sorts of places you know recent years all over the world the fertility rates are plummeting except they're still way above uh uh re reproduction rate in in most of Africa right and uh it's not people know how to get out of Africa now you get a smartphone it gives you all the instructions and so forth so you know why not move somewhere nicer and you know so the so the country could well be um you know I mean Europe's getting much more African and probably and America is too at this point um the uh descendants of American slaves are losing out on their affirmative action and so forth I mean 20 years ago um uh uh to Harvard African American studies professors pointed out that a huge fraction of the affirmative action spots at Harvard seem to be reserved either for foreign Elites whose parents are you know foreign minister of Ghana or something like that or are or have one white parent or like in the case of the Obama family that's now three generation Harvard family both uh Privileges and you know not many positions at Harvard go to descendants of American slaves the way you know Michelle Obama is clearly a you know highly legitimate descendant of American slaves and Barack not at all um but yeah that's we're going to we'll see that I mean American corporations they want if if they have to meet Dei quotas uh they tend to prefer uh immigrants for the job or people maybe who were raised by their white mothers or something like that so uh we'll we'll see where where this all leads to where does it all go politically well actually let me just take a step back you um became famous to the extent that you were famous in sort of a SAS do kind of way 2016 for calling that election with some with some accuracy ba based on looking at the demographics like tell us about your predictions yeah I mean that's that's a kind overstatement but it's it's it's more like in 2000 I became the most outspoken critic of the new GOP Orthodoxy is promulgated by Carl Ro George W Bush's singali and Ro's theory was that what we need what the Republicans need is to push through amnesty and much easier immigration and that's what the Latino voters or future Latino voters will will they'll love us for that for bringing in fellow Latinos and then they'll all switch to voting a republican especially for the Bush family which you know that Jeb's son uh George p bush is half Mexican and so there the future as the United States and Mexico demographically merge the bush dynasty of wasps and Mexicans will carry on as the natural ruling class of a of a increasingly myso North America uh and that's that wasn't too implausible but I kept asking questions like do Mex do Latinos really care and that much about immigration policy are they are you sure they really want all their cousins from back home to be moving in with them uh the one close Latino state is Florida and do the Cubans in Florida really care about Mexicans illegal alien Mexicans I haven't noticed that and I kept saying you know and awful lot of Latinos are in California and that's never going to go Republic again and the others are in Texas in large numbers and if that goes if that's up for play then the Republican part is in really big trouble so wouldn't it make more sense looking at the Electoral College map to go well look there's all these Great Lake States the Rust Belt and one of the things you see there is that the white working class isn't anywhere near as Republican as they are in the South and they're actually really close in the Electoral College Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania so why not do things for the white working class in the north and such as uh limiting immigration so that you know they can continue to be paid pretty well uh and focus on them and yeah that's and the Republican establishment kept going on with the Hispanic uh plan that was the big 2013 audit that convinced Marco Rubio that we need amnesty and so forth uh but I kept saying Yeah you know the way you win in the Electoral College is these is these Rust Belt states around the did Ro not see that uh he I mean for his loyalty to the bush Dynasty I really think George P bush uh played a huge role in the bush family's thinking that because Jeb had married into a Mexican family that this gave the bushes out of all the WASP dynasties in the United States the greatest chance to exploit uh the immigration wave from Latin America and to be the natural rulers of um of mexicanizado started so um so yeah it made sense to Rove um you know you got the sense that the more you listen to ro that maybe he wasn't the genius we were told he was yeah I mean you know yeah he won he won an election he W yeah he got he won a couple of Elections for George W bush um but yeah is he this genius nah but you know the Republicans weren't didn't you know W didn't have a whole lot of people who crunch numbers and spreadsheets so in the first decade of the century I spent a lot of time analyzing spreadsheets and so forth of election totals and going you know it looks like there's a different path here and it really runs through the north central region where white Working Class People vote about 50/50 Republican and Democrat and you get that up to 55 60% you know you can you can win a lot of electoral votes so did did Trump uh read my 2000 article nah but what else was he gonna do that was that was the one path to the presidency you know and almost worked again in 2020 under pretty adverse circumstances so will it work this time I don't know I've got I've given up making predictions I mean people people came along like Nate silver who just were so much more interested in predicting elections and and worked so much harder at it I was like and I don't have that gambling Instinct that that Nate does and you know uh I'm gonna I'm I'm going to retire from Mak predictions I'm not I don't see myself as a great forecaster of the future what I try to be is a his torian of the present and notice things that are happening right now so what is happening with Hispanic voters um in in Texas in Texas it definitely seemed like the racial Reckoning of 2020 when the when the Democrats went basically nuts over blacks alienated quite a few Texas uh Latino Democrats uh in California less clear uh you know does it even matter I mean California's not much of a democracy at this point yeah it's it it doesn't matter it it it's helpful in Texas in that the Republican Republicans will basically lose the White House forever when Texas flips blue uh the good news in Texas is that basically Ally they have a pretty they have a pretty strong loyal steadfast Republican white population a lot of the advantages of Texas are that they're not tied into guilt over the South they were a Confederate State but they don't care about that they care about the alamoo they've got this whole National narrative and it it helps keep them together and they provide strong leadership for Hispanics and Hispanics are less you know domineering than people were talking about in the past they're they kind of look around at their upper middle class neighbors and go oh okay what what do you do oh you're a republican okay that sounds pretty cool I might be a republican too California you know the upper middle class is is democratic so the Hispanics follow that lead um so I can't tell you know exactly where it'll go how does Trump change that I mean it it feels anecdotally like a lot of Latin American immigrants like Trump yeah I mean what what Trump has done is he's taken the appeal of the Republican party uh downscale compared to say Mitt Romney uh mitt did a pretty good job of holding on to Suburban upper middle class the frequent flyer population uh corporate Executives and things like that they feel one with him uh you know Trump is picking up workingclass people of all Races uh that's good but you know it's it also is kind of taking uh the Republican Party downscale intellectually uh you know you're getting more dumb conspiracy theories out of Republicans Etc um you know it's if if can the Republicans keep some competent to higher brow people around you know that's another question what do you think I mean a big a big question is how much is this totally a a Trump's personality I mean you know 2020 20 24 it looked like Ronda Santos had like studied Trump and said okay Trump's got some interesting new ideas some post Romney ideas and I'm the competent uh well-educated guy who reads all the fine print and I can I can Implement some of these and that didn't seem like a bad pitch uh but just went didn't go over at all you know as soon as the Democrats started started arresting Trump for all sorts of charges then you know that that helped solve the Democratic n nightmare that the Republicans were going to nominate a a competent 40 something to run against their octogen incumbent and so now we we're stuck with a with a rerun of of so you think that's what it was it was the legal persecution of trump yeah it seemed like that blunted disantis and basically Republicans went back to Trump and went like well if the Democrats are going to do that then we're going to stand by Trump and you know if the you know arresting a major candidate is unamerican it's it's totally shameful in the United States history and the Democrats didn't get in the way and go like oh let's let's not do that they let local politicians you know kind of run a muck like this New York case and and so they got the they got the nominee they wanted uh Donald Trump but now they now they're real worried that they're going to get the president they don't want Donald Trump so we shall see so you're the the reason that you've emerged from your Caven torab Bora uh com to the sorry um is because you've got a book yeah it's a beautiful looking book um and it's collected uh journalism 1973 to 2023 um you don't look that old uh but it's called noticing what does that mean yeah um I'll hold it up here uh I mean it it's it's a slogan that I took from George or well who said that to to see what's in front of one's nose takes a constant effort and I'm trying to make it easier for people to notice the realities that they see around them and to to to understand that what they see with their own Lying Eyes and their daily life is also actually validated by the best the social sciences and that there that there aren't these two different Realms of existence this kind of tody sublunary one where we make decisions about what neighborhoods our family should live in and what's what are good schools for the kids and then this this higher more uh Realm of the science the world of data yeah the world of data that proves that all those things you notice in your daily life can't possibly be true because then that would be a stereotype and my view is not it's all connected there's just one reality out there it goes from your personal anecdotes to what people might dismisses anic data to the data and it all tells pretty much the same story so but why is it I mean I we don't need to get into Co but I just noticed from the very beginning I never you know do you know anyone di of do you know anyone like actually know one have you had dinner with anyone who later died of Co do you know anyone who was injured by the facts and I don't think I've ever met a single person who didn't have the same answer I did whether that's reality or not I still don't know but I do know there's been such an effort to tell me that I'm crazy for noticing that yeah one one thing I used to do was go through the list of on Wikipedia prominent people who have died of covid and thing I noticed about it was that they were almost all people who were no longer in their primes um that oh like I saw like oh baseball pitcher Hall of Famer Tom sver has died at age 74 of covid and then I I looked up a little more about him and like well you know he probably would had another good couple decades going to oldtimers games and stuff like that but then it turned out that he' dropped out of public life the year before because he had dementia and Parkinson just general he didn't have a good life ahead of him um and so I think that's one of the things that was going on was that Co was really taking a toll among people who who had passed their primes and were in in toward the last decade of their lives and weren't no longer in the public eye and uh so that's that that sort of helps explain the thesis that yeah there was a lot of covid deaths the antithesis that like you know it's not like anybody I was like met I knew at work dropped dead of covid and then you get the synthesis of like oh yeah it's it it mostly uh killed off people who were who were probably close to retirement retired in ill health from other things and so on so I think what's interesting is the point of social science there was a point was to bring the principles of Science of the scientific method to bear on the world just right around us and to make it clear what we are actually seeing yeah I think yeah and but it seems like its use at least over the past several years has been to do the opposite which is to obscure what we're actually seeing living experiencing and tell us a story that's not true yeah is that my imagination no it's I mean the issue is that so much data has piled up uh that you can we can now answer quite a few questions that were beyond our capability beforehand I mean um and the answers we keep getting are the politic are generally politically incorrect ones that were anticipated by the bad people the Charles Murray's and James Q Wilson in the 20 in the 20th century um so for example we have an enormous amount of data from DNA that tells us about our racial ancestry and what have we discovered in that in in this century did the uh the conventional wisdom that race does not biologically exist be proven no of course not you can you can call up ancestory.com or 23 and me and they'll tell you your race to three three digits um you know they'll tell you you know if you're if you're Jewish they'll tell you you know you're 49.8% ashkanazi uh other data is piling up there's a Harvard Economist named Raj chedy who's done phenomenal work talking government bureaucracies into letting him work with totally confidential data like like the tax returns of everybody in the country and so he can do studies that nobody ever had the Huts Spa a dream before that they'd ever get their hands on the data so for example he gets uh he he Track 21 million Americans across 30 years of their lives from he looked at how much money their parents made in the 1990s and then he looked at things like were they in jail on census day January uh April 1st 19 2010 when they were about 30 years old and so then he could plot out what's what are the odds of uh of a man being in jail based on how poor Rich's parents were and not surprisingly uh poor poor guys who grew up poor go to jail a lot more but he could also answer using data from the Census Bureau what the race was of all 21 million of his people and he discovered yeah in general blacks who had the exact same income as whites growing up as kids in the 90s but on 20 in 2010 were in jail three to 10 times more often than whites who were their exact peers in terms of family income and this this is like wow I never expected somebody to be able to come up with that and it goes yeah so when people wonder why are blacks in jail more often is it is it poverty and poverty plays a role but even without poverty you take it all away at the highest level blacks at the at the highest percentile blacks go to jail about 10 times as often as as the richest whites uh so we're able to answer all sorts of social science questions these days but nobody likes the answers they're getting well it did seem like when we finally unraveled the human genome which was right around the time the bell curve came out is yeah um that's when the whole conversation got shut down yeah maybe we had too much information yeah uh what what happened at at a ceremony that Bill Clinton put on in the presidential Rose p uh Garden in 2000 for the Human Genome Project uh they just sort of made progress decoding a single genome which was mostly that of entrepreneur Craig Venter who who' helped out enormously uh and Craig got up and made a speech that was exactly what the Zeitgeist wanted wanted to hear he said we've looked at the human genome or his human genome and we discovered the one thing you can't see in it is race there's no difference whatsoever genetically between different genomes in terms of racial ancestry well then within three four five years the evidence was piling up it's like no actually you can tell exactly what the ancestry of people is became a a sizable business very quickly but as far as I can tell a huge fraction of the population remembers hearing that s the science has proven that race doesn't exist genetically and they've never rethought it since that 2000 uh speech by ventor standing next to Bill Clinton um so people people want to believe some things they want to believe that the science has proven all of this this anti-racist uh dogmas that they get told and they just sort of ignore that n it's actually moving in the other direction it's time that we it's time that we think realistically about you know what the data is telling us and you know personally I don't think it's the end of the world by any means it and I think we can like we can all get along pretty well knowing knowing the realities but a lot of people are just terrified of them and basically want to lie about it I mean the way that previous civilizations held together in the face of knowledge of genetic and racial differences which are obviously real but they weren't always at war with themselves and one of the ways they did that was by believing in a religious doctrine that said God created everybody therefore despite whatever differences we have we are all of equal value yeah without that overlay which we no longer have how do you keep a society together in the in the face of these realities yeah I mean the Democrats have been moving toward the you know to toward a sort of Nazi type solution of having a scapegoat who's who unites everybody else by being the Locust of evil namely uh whites or you know in the way the Democratic works it's it's all sorts of circles within circles so you get more Pokemon points for being nonwhite you get diversity points for being a woman you get more diversity points if you were born a man etc etc um but yeah unifying around a scapegoat population that does not have a good track record what happens in the end what happens in the end we don't know uh does does it get worse or one one of the things we see maybe over the last years is people just objecting to