Charlie Kirk on Kanye West's Presidential Run and How It Could Help Donald Trump Win in 2020
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Charlie Kirk on Kanye West's Presidential Run and How It Could Help Donald Trump Win in 2020
Charlie Kirk offers a unique perspective on Kanye West's surprise presidential announcement, having spent extensive time with both Kanye and President Trump. Kirk argues that Kanye's candidacy could actually benefit Trump by siphoning enthusiasm from younger and Black voters who might otherwise support Joe Biden. With Biden refusing to leave his basement and conduct traditional campaigning, Kirk believes a third-party candidate like Kanye disrupts the Democrats' strategy of making the election a simple referendum on Trump. Kirk also addresses concerning poll trends, the urgent need to reopen America, and why Republican governors must resist renewed lockdowns if Trump hopes to secure victory in November.
Kanye West's Presidential Announcement and Its Potential Impact
The discussion begins with a humorous observation about timing: moments after pointing out that Kanye West's new song demonstrated a sophisticated understanding of liberty, Kanye announced his presidential run. While the connection remains unclear, the announcement has sparked serious conversations about its impact on the 2020 race.
Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA, offers a perspective few others can provide. As one of the few people who has spent extensive time with both Kanye West and President Trump, Kirk takes Kanye's candidacy seriously. His advice is clear: don't dismiss it at face value. The more people say Kanye won't actually run, the more likely he is to follow through, much like when critics said he wouldn't wear the MAGA hat and he responded by wearing what could only be described as a "MAGA suit" to meet Trump in the Oval Office.
Why Kanye's Candidacy Could Help Trump
Kirk presents a counterintuitive analysis: Kanye West running for president could actually benefit Donald Trump. The reasoning centers on identifying which demographics Joe Biden needs to energize to win. Biden desperately needs high turnout among Black voters and younger voters. These are precisely the demographics that would be most attracted to a Kanye West candidacy.
In certain states, Trump can consolidate 44-45 percent of the vote fairly reliably. If Kanye enters the race, files proper FEC paperwork, and gets on the ballot, he could potentially draw away younger voters and Black voters who might have otherwise turned out for Biden. This wouldn't hurt Trump because his base remains solid and enthusiastic, with enthusiasm levels nearly double that of Biden's supporters according to polling data.
Kirk draws a historical parallel to 1992, when Ross Perot entered the race. The candidate with higher enthusiasm is less likely to be impacted by a third-party entrant. In that election, George H.W. Bush suffered because he lacked the enthusiasm advantage. Trump, by contrast, has an enthusiasm edge that should protect him from losing supporters to Kanye.
Disrupting the Democrats' Strategy
The Biden campaign has constructed its entire strategy around making the election a parliamentary-style referendum on Trump, similar to a House of Commons vote of no confidence. They want voters to focus solely on whether they approve or disapprove of the president, not on a binary choice between two candidates with competing visions.
A third candidate disrupts this strategy completely. It transforms the race from a simple yes-or-no vote on Trump into a more complex decision involving multiple options. For a candidate like Biden, who has virtually no enthusiasm, no energy, and can barely leave his basement, this is problematic. The more options voters have, the more Biden's lack of appeal becomes a liability rather than an asset.
Kirk also notes an interesting dynamic regarding celebrity endorsements. Democrats have traditionally relied on Hollywood and celebrity culture to excite voters who don't follow politics closely. If Kanye enters the race, it makes endorsements from other celebrities like Beyoncé and Jay-Z for Biden seem awkward, especially given their personal history with Kanye. The Democrats would no longer have a monopoly on being the "sexy Hollywood candidate."
Elon Musk's Non-Endorsement of Biden
Elon Musk's support for Kanye's potential candidacy carries significance beyond the surface level. The key point isn't that Musk endorsed Kanye, but rather that he didn't endorse Biden. Musk receives government contracts and benefits from tax credits in California. By conventional political logic, he should be a Biden supporter, quietly staying in line with the establishment.
Instead, Musk has become another symbol of the disruption happening in American politics. Teenagers and young adults look up to Musk favorably. His refusal to consolidate behind Biden represents a failure in the Democratic coalition-building that should be happening flawlessly at this stage of the campaign. As Kirk describes it, the "masters of chaos" or "architects of the Biden presidency" are not seeing the seamless consolidation they need.
Biden's Basement Campaign Strategy
Joe Biden spent Fourth of July weekend continuing his basement campaign strategy, refusing to engage in traditional campaigning. He pushed out a video that essentially excoriated America rather than celebrating the nation's founding. The few times he has emerged for carefully controlled events, the contrast with his rhetoric becomes glaring.
During one press gaggle with hand-picked reporters, Biden insisted on the necessity of wearing masks and avoiding gatherings due to medical advice. Yet he delivered these remarks outdoors without wearing a mask himself. The inconsistency reveals that Biden only appears when it's politically convenient, and increasingly, it's not convenient because his cognitive decline has become difficult to disguise.
Kirk predicts that once America opens up and normalizes, there will be a public demand to actually see and hear from the presidential candidates. When people start traveling again, sitting in traffic again, and resuming normal activities, they'll want to know who's running for president and what they have to say. At that point, Biden's ability to hide will evaporate, and the race will tighten significantly.
The Polling Landscape and Trump's Path Forward
While Kirk doesn't put complete stock in current polling, he acknowledges that the trends since the coronavirus lockdowns haven't been favorable for Trump. Even if the polls are half wrong, they still don't show great numbers for the president. The question isn't whether they're wrong, but rather how wrong they are.
However, Kirk attributes the current polling environment to the abnormal nature of the campaign. This isn't a typical presidential race. Networks are required by law to provide equal time to both candidates, and Kirk questions how they can possibly fulfill that obligation when one candidate won't leave his house. An independent audit of major networks' coverage would reveal interesting disparities in how this equal-time requirement is being met or ignored.
Kirk believes the race will tighten dramatically once Biden has to appear in front of actual human beings, not socially distanced coffee gatherings where everyone sits in their own 30-foot circle. If Trump strikes the tone he achieved at Mount Rushmore, positioning himself as the defender and guardian of America with tangible, specific plans for restoring greatness and achieving real results, the race will bottleneck into a competitive contest by fall.
The Urgent Need to Reopen America
A critical factor in Trump's path to victory is whether America actually reopens before the election. Biden has already telegraphed his strategy: no campaigning, no rallies, wearing masks constantly, and blaming it all on the virus and medical advice. This allows him to avoid situations where his decline becomes undeniable while simultaneously preventing Trump from leveraging his greatest advantage—his ability to draw massive, enthusiastic crowds.
Kirk expresses frustration with Republican governors in Florida, Texas, and Arizona who have implemented new lockdown measures. The data does not support these decisions. The quicker America reopens, the quicker the economy recovers, and the quicker the country can have a real presidential campaign after Labor Day. This would enable an actual election rather than the vote-by-mail scheme that Democrats are attempting to implement.
If America remains largely locked down through September, Biden's likelihood of winning increases significantly. Conversely, if states reopen and campaigns can proceed normally, Trump's chances improve dramatically. This makes the reopening question not just an economic or public health issue, but a central factor in determining the election outcome.
The Power of Grassroots Pressure on Weak Republicans
Kirk points to a recent example of how grassroots conservative pressure can change the behavior of establishment Republicans. Senator Mike Braun came out supporting the Black Lives Matter Inc. movement—a characterization used to emphasize its nature as a multi-hundred-million-dollar fundraising operation for Act Blue rather than a genuine grassroots movement.
After Tucker Carlson, Kirk, and others aggressively criticized Braun's position, the senator quickly retreated, pulled the bill, and claimed he didn't mean it. This demonstrates that 50 or 60 tweets from influential voices can make Republican governors and senators very nervous. The conservative movement has more power than it often realizes.
Kirk calls for this same pressure to be applied to Republican governors implementing new lockdowns. If enough noise is made, even by just one or two percent of the base, it can change their behavior. This represents a crucial lesson: the ruling class Republicans do listen when the pressure becomes intense enough. The conservative base shouldn't convince itself that its voice doesn't matter. It does, and recent examples prove it.
The Stakes of the 2020 Election
The conversation underscores the unusual nature of the 2020 election and the multiple variables that will determine its outcome. Kanye West's potential candidacy, Biden's basement strategy, the state of economic reopening, the feasibility of traditional campaigning, and the push for mail-in voting all interact in complex ways.
For Trump supporters, the path forward requires multiple elements to align: America must reopen, Biden must be forced to campaign publicly, Trump must maintain his messaging discipline while highlighting his concrete plans for the future, and the enthusiasm gap between the two campaigns must be allowed to manifest in actual voter behavior rather than being masked by lockdown-induced vote-by-mail schemes.
Kirk's analysis suggests that Trump's chances improve significantly in a normalized environment where voters can see both candidates clearly, where the economy is recovering, and where the president can leverage his natural advantages in energy, enthusiasm, and crowd appeal. The question is whether that normalized environment will be allowed to materialize before Election Day.
