Victor Davis Hanson Warns Modern Nations Face Same Existential Threats That Destroyed Thebes, Carthage, Constantinople and the Aztecs
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Victor Davis Hanson Warns Modern Nations Face Same Existential Threats That Destroyed Thebes, Carthage, Constantinople and the Aztecs
Victor Davis Hanson examines a rare and terrifying phenomenon in military history: the complete annihilation of civilizations. Through the lens of four iconic cases, Thebes destroyed by Alexander the Great, Carthage razed by Scipio Aemilianus, Constantinople conquered by Ottoman Turks, and Tenochtitlan obliterated by Hernan Cortez, Hanson reveals a disturbing pattern. Each society believed it couldn't happen to them, relying on past glories while ignoring present vulnerabilities. Hanson argues that human nature remains unchanged, and the existential threats facing modern nations from Iran, North Korea, Turkey, and Russia mirror the same eliminationist rhetoric that preceded historical annihilations. In an age of nuclear weapons and increasing autocratic aggression, the comforting belief that civilization has evolved beyond such barbarity may be the most dangerous delusion of all.
The Rarest and Most Terrifying Phenomenon in Military History
The end of everything is about the existential destruction of the losing side in a war. This is very rare in history—it doesn't happen very often—but when it does, it should enlighten us how it does, why it does, and can it happen again.
Usually when two opposing nations or states go to war and one loses, there are some types of armistice arrangements or concessions that allow the defeated to survive and to continue its civilization and culture. But every once in a while, that does not occur. There are several cases in history of peoples being wiped out, and some of them are recorded in history very graphically.
The Melians were wiped out by the Athenians. The Olynthians were wiped out by Philip II. They lose their language, their population, often their infrastructure, their religion, and within 20 to 50 years afterward, they're completely wiped out.
Four Iconic Cases of Civilizational Annihilation
Victor Davis Hanson chose four of the most iconic examples for his examination:
Classical Thebes, destroyed in 335 BC by Alexander the Great
Classical Carthage, wiped out and destroyed down to the foundations in 146 BC by Scipio Aemilianus
The majestic city of Constantinople and its civilization known as Byzantium, destroyed by the Ottoman Turks in 1453
The Mexican capital of Tenochtitlan, the center of Aztec civilization, completely annihilated and obliterated by Hernan Cortez in 1521
The Dangerous Delusion of Past Glory
In all of these four examples, not only were the targeted peoples deluded about their actual strength vis-à-vis the conquerors, they were deluded because they felt that they were somebody they were not. They had never taken a realistic estimate.
It's a frightening lesson for the modern world that any powerful state should not talk about its past successes but only look at its present ability to defend itself or to create an image of deterrence—and it's not predicated on past successes. In fact, past successes can be a narcotic that deludes people from the reality and the dangers of the present.
Every Society Is in Denial
Every society is narcissistic and egocentric. Their mantra in all of these cases—the past are very similar to the present—can be summed up as something along the lines: it won't happen to us, it can't happen here.
Hanson wrote the book in one sense not just as a historical journey to document the rare cases of a targeted nation being completely destroyed, but as a warning that human nature doesn't change. The delivery system, the weapons that humans use, the types of government, the degree of affluence or technology changes, but the people themselves and their innate nature do not. What that means is that the destruction of Thebes or Constantinople or Carthage could happen again.
Modern Existential Threats Mirror Ancient Patterns
In the last five or six years, Hanson noticed that there was more and more existential threats coming from autocratic regimes:
The Turkish government was threatening Armenia not just with defeat but complete destruction
The president of Turkey was threatening the Kurds, the Cypriots, and the Greeks
The eliminationist rhetoric from Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas prior to October 7th of 2023 had vastly accelerated, making it almost commonplace to say "the Zionist entity will be destroyed" or "Israel is a one-bomb state"
North Korea had become nuclear and was threatening Japan with annihilation and the United States with nuclear attacks
Everybody in all of these cases was reacting in the sense that the United States has such a nuclear deterrent, or we're in the 21st century where the United Nations Security Council can handle this, or these people are just doing it to get money or political concessions. The prevailing thought was that Iran would never destroy Israel, Russia would never wipe out parts of Ukraine, Turkey would never wipe out the Kurds or the Armenians or attack Greece, much less would they attack Israel.
The Paradox of Globalization
In the 21st century of globalization that we thought would create a common humanity and evolve past war, just the opposite effect took place. It was almost as if familiarity created greater contempt.
Hanson would like everybody reading the book to be aware that it can happen here, and it's just as likely that a people would cease to exist or disappear today as it was 2,000 years ago or a thousand years ago. That means that didactically we should learn from the past and protect ourselves in the future.
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